CHHMA - EYE ON OUR INDUSTRY
Volume 15, Issue 47, December 16, 2015

Inside This Issue:

• President’s Year-End Message
• Register Now for Complimentary Wealth Management Seminar - February 10, 2016
• Decoding the Mysteries of Managing Millennials Seminar – January 28, 2016
• CSSA Updates: Voluntary Steward Deadlines Fast Approaching; MMSW Program Set to Launch; Stewardship Ontario News
• Federal Government Moves to Cool Hot Housing Markets with New Down Payment Rules
• Sears Canada’s New Management Team has a Plan to Revive the Struggling Store
• Former Landlords Push Target Canada on Details of RioCan Settlement
• Newell Rubbermaid to Buy Jarden Corp. for Approx. $13.2 Billion
• Hudson’s Bay Co. Swings to Profit in Q3 But Cuts Sales Outlook
• Mobile Pay Wars Heat Up as Wal-Mart Launches Own Mobile System
• Dollarama Sees Good Results in Q3 But Expects Bumpy Road Ahead Due to Currency
• Sales of Existing Homes Rise in November; CREA Updates Resale Housing Forecast
• Latest U.S. Economic News

Association News

President’s Year-End Message

Seasons Greetings CHHMA Members,

Winding down another year is a time to reflect on what is going on in both our work and personal lives. My wish for all of you is that things are going well and you have been able to adjust and adapt to the rapid changes taking place.

This past year has been another challenging one for vendors and it is not likely that it will get any easier going into 2016. Here is a quote from my message last year at this time, it appears not much has changed!

“The weakness in the Canadian dollar, falling oil prices and the rising attention being placed on Canada vs USA pricing may make getting the necessary price increases accepted by retailers more difficult.”

The Board and management have been reviewing everything the CHHMA does and how we communicate with our members. Understanding the pressure our members face at work and at home, we are constantly looking at what we can do to make your life easier. Please remember everything we do at the Association is done to assist our members in running a more profitable business. Watch for a few key announcements over the next few weeks.

As you prepare for the upcoming year, we at the CHHMA wish you all the best through the festive season and hope you enjoy time with family and friends.

My personal thanks go to the Board, our committee members and our dedicated staff, without them we could not continue to provide the services we do. On their behalf, I would like to thank you for your support and wish you a safe, peaceful and enjoyable holiday season and a very happy and successful 2016.

Yours sincerely,

Vaughn W. Crofford
President 


Register Now for Complimentary Wealth Management Seminar - February 10, 2016

TD Wealth, Geoff Kidder (Investment Adviser to the CHHMA) and a team of financial experts are thrilled to offer an exclusive and insightful morning of knowledge that you can immediately put into action to start earning better returns on your investments, pay less tax, and ensure you are on the road to achieving financial peace-of-mind.

This wealth management seminar is complimentary to CHHMA members and will be held on Wednesday, February 10, 2016 at the International Centre (Conference Facility) in Mississauga, ON.

Registration and hot breakfast will take place from 8:00 to 9:00 a.m. followed by presentations from 9:00 to 11:30 a.m.

Providing You With Financial Peace-of-Mind: Wealth Management Solutions in a Low interest Rate World

Agenda:

- The Best Wealth Management Solution in Canada
        Using Corporate Class mutual funds to reduce the taxes you pay on your investment income
- Market Neutral Investing
        Reduce risk when investing in equities without giving up return potential
- Estate Planning
        Reduce taxation when passing your legacy on to your heirs
- Investing in a Low Interest Rate World
        Understanding Principal at Risk and Principal Protected Notes
- Private Banking, Estate and Trust Services
        Understanding Wills & Powers of Attorney
- Business Succession Planning
        The Three Key Things You Must Know Before You Sell Your Business

 For more details and to register, click here. 
 
 
Decoding the Mysteries of Managing Millennials Seminar – January 28, 2016

The CHHMA is also pleased to offer our members an opportunity to attend an informative seminar on Decoding the Mysteries of Managing Millennials on Thursday, January 28, 2016.

Based on the latest research and practical workplace observations it is clear that managers are frustrated by the perceived neediness of their younger employees.  And at the same time, younger employees are frustrated with the lack of interaction and guidance they receive from their managers.

Whether you are a millennial yourself, or a more seasoned co-worker, manager, parent or grandparent to a millennial you’ll find this session interesting and insightful. Sales and business development staff will satisfy their curiosity on how to modify their approaches to sell and service younger customers and contacts.

Get ready to:

• See the difference between the myths and facts about Millennials
• Learn how to communicate and engage with Millennials
• Sell and service the next generation of customers and contacts to maintain and grow your business
• Use a handful of practical leadership strategies to attract, retain, motivate and engage younger workers
• How to combine the powerful forces of more seasoned experienced team members with the fresh new perspective of younger team members.

The Expert Presenter

Greg Schinkel is a thought leader in the area of front line leadership and management. He has authored or co-authored several books on leadership including Employees Not Doing What You Expect, What Great Supervisors Know, Awakening the Workplace and Fusion or Fizzle: How Leaders Leverage Training to Ignite Results. As a Certified Speaking Professional, Greg is in the top 10% of speakers and trainers globally. His captivating blend of style and substance will make for an insightful and engaging session. Learn more about Greg at http://www.UniqueDevelopment.com.

The seminar will take place at the CHSI (Centre for Health & Safety Innovation), 5110 Creekbank Road, Mississauga, ON L4W 0A1 on  Thursday, January 28, 2016.  Registration (coffee & muffins will be served) from 8:30 to 9:00 a.m., followed by the presentation from 9:00 to 11:00 a.m. The cost to attend is $59.99+HST per person.

Mark your calendar and look for a communique on how to register in the next few days.


Stewardship News

CSSA Updates: Voluntary Steward Deadlines Fast Approaching; MMSW Program Set to Launch; Stewardship Ontario News
Voluntary Steward Deadline Fast Approaching - December 31

Below are some important reminders regarding voluntary stewards:

New voluntary stewards wishing to report in May 2016 for MMBC, MMSW, MMSM or Stewardship Ontario must submit a completed and signed Voluntary Steward Agreementto CSSA by December 31, 2015.

Existing voluntary stewards wishing to terminate their agreement with any of the programs for 2016, must notify National Steward Services in writing no later than December 31, 2015.

Grandfathered voluntary stewards are requested to complete and submit their Voluntary Steward Agreements as soon as possible CSSA's Voluntary Steward Policy and Voluntary Steward Agreements for each of the four programs can be found here.

Multi-Material Stewardship Western (MMSW) Program Set to Launch

On October 28, the Saskatchewan Minister of Environment announced its approval of MMSW's revised Stewardship Plan.MMSW will launch the program on January 1, 2016 when MMSW members will begin to share the cost to recycle their waste packaging and paper with municipalities.  For more information on MMSW's revised Program Plan please visit MMSW's website to view the August webinar presentation.

Under the revised Stewardship Plan, payments to municipalities are calculated on the basis of capturing 60% of the packaging and paper reported by MMSW members only. MMSW will not pay for the management of WPP from free riders or exempt businesses. MMSW will issue the first of four quarterly invoices to stewards on January 1, 2016, payable on January 31, 2016.

The approved Program Plan can be found here.  

The Saskatchewan Government's news release regarding the plan approval can be found here.  

New Waste Diversion Legislation Released by the Ontario Government

On November 26, the Ontario government introduced new waste diversion legislation and released a draft waste diversion strategy for 90 days of consultation.  For more information, refer to the article from the December 2nd newsletter.

PIM Now Available

Stewardship Ontario's 2016 Pay-In Model (PIM) table is now available online. The PIM table contains the calculations to derive the 2016 Blue Box fees.

2016 PIM Table available from this webpage.  

The 2016 fee schedule here can be accessed here.  

Update on Determination of 2016 Steward Obligation

The amount of the total steward obligation for 2016 remains an issue to be resolved.

Waste Diversion Ontario (WDO) is continuing its work to determine the 2016 steward obligation. In the absence of an approved obligation, Stewardship Ontario has used a proxy of $134M for the steward obligation based on 50% of municipal-reported net costs in the same manner that the 2014 and 2015 steward obligations were calculated.

Stewardship Ontario is continuing to work with WDO and municipalities to determine what the 2016 obligation should be, and will keep stewards informed of any news as and when it happens.

If you have any questions about any of the programs, contact the CSSA Steward Services team at 1-888-980-9549 or email: stewards@cssalliance.ca or our CHHMA Stewardship Program consultants:

Al Marks, 416-282-0022 ext.24, steward@chhma.ca
Duncan Deans, 416-282-0022 ext.22, ddeans@chhma.ca

Source: CSSA 


Government & Legislative News

Federal Government Moves to Cool Hot Housing Markets with New Down Payment Rules

The new Liberal government is raising the minimum down payment for new insured mortgages to 10% from 5% for the portion of house prices above $500,000.

The new rules will take effect on Feb. 15, 2016. Down payment rules for mortgages for properties below $500,000 will be unchanged.

The move is aimed at cooling overheated housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver but that could risk exaggerating a home price correction in the Prairies.

At a news conference in Ottawa, Finance Minister Bill Morneau said Ottawa’s move is targeted at “pockets of risks” in the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets.

“This will impact 1% or less of the market.  We think it does it in a very targeted way,” he said.

The finance minister said the government looked closely at what the changes might mean for this will mean for the struggling Alberta economy.

“We considered the fact that the Alberta situation is challenging. We want to make sure that we’re doing things that don’t negatively impact that market and in fact that’s one of the reasons why we were very careful about exactly what we did and only impacted those homes over $500,000 up to a million,” he said.

“We’re not talking about bubbles here. We are talking about ensuring that Canadians take the right approach to investing in a home.

It’s to protect the market for the existing home owners and it’s to protect new home buyers as well so that they have the appropriate amount of equity in their home,” he said.
Ottawa had previously restricted its mortgage insurance to homes valued at less than $1-million, so the minimum down payment for more expensive homes remains unchanged at 20%.

“The Ministry of Finance is touching the untouchable,” said CIBC economist Benjamin Tal.

While the move represents the most significant tightening of mortgage rules since Ottawa implemented the minimum 5% down payment in 2008, the effect may be smaller than expected, writes Mr. Tal.

Just 17% of home sales across Canada over the past year were for between $500,000 and $1-million, although that figure rose to 33% in Vancouver and 40% in Toronto.

Roughly 23% of outstanding mortgages in Canada are considered “high-ratio,” with owners requiring government-backed mortgage insurance, meaning the rules will affect less than 4% of new mortgages, writes Mr. Tal.

“[However,] I think you will see some extreme activity in some markets,” said Doug Porter, chief economist with Bank of Montreal, referring to the red hot Toronto and Vancouver markets.

The mad dash scenario almost always plays itself out when mortgage rates rise as consumers who have locked in their rates rush to take advantage of the lower rate they have guaranteed. Porter said the effect of down payment changes may be even more pronounced, when you factor in current rates and the unseasonably warm weather.

He noted that in the past, the Tories implemented changes and made them effective immediately. However, he added, the change in down payment rules is large enough that people probably needed an adjustment period.

“January home sales in Toronto and Vancouver could spike as people rush to get in before the 5% down door closes,” said Rob McLister, founder of ratespy.com.

The Toronto and Vancouver markets, which the new measures hope to cool, hardly need any more heat. The Toronto Real Estate Board announced this month it broke its yearly record for sales in November. In Vancouver sales were up 40% year over year while the benchmark price for a home rose 17.2% during the period.

Average resale home prices rose an annualized 9.4% in November, while the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board said benchmark prices for homes in the Metro Vancouver area rose nearly 18% since last November.

The share of properties valued at between $500,000 and $1-million is actually smaller in Toronto and Vancouver than given that sizzling markets have pushed many properties, particularly detached homes, over the $1-million mark.

Sizzling markets have pushed the prices of many homes, particularly detached houses, above the $1-million mark in Toronto and Vancouver, pushing out many of the first-time buyers who would most likely be affected by the new rules. A survey earlier this year by private sector mortgage insurer Genworth MI Financial found the average down payment among first-time buyers in Toronto and Vancouver was 20%.

The new rules will likely affect just 5% of new sales in Toronto, and just 2.5% in Vancouver, writes Mr. Tal. But will affect nearly 10% of sales in Calgary, where homeowners tended to have relatively small down payments.

“The overall impact will be felt only at the margin, given the relatively small segment of the market that will be impacted – even in the target markets.”

Even so, the government’s move has widespread support, according to a RE/MAX survey released earlier this week that found two thirds of Canadians agree that the minimum down payment for a home should be at least 10%.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) also announced it was raising the limits on its government-insured mortgage-backed securities program to $105-billion in 2016 from $80-billion this year. The program is an important source for lenders, allowing them securitizes insured mortgages and sell them to investors, with Ottawa providing insurance on both the mortgages and the mortgage-backed securities themselves. The amount of government-backed securities that individual lenders can issue each year was raised from $6-billion to $7.5-billion. CMHC said it was hiking the fees it charges to lenders who go over the prescribed annual allotment, but would lower the fees for lenders who used the government’s Canada Mortgage Bond program.

“The revised fee structure is intended to encourage the development of private market funding alternatives by narrowing the funding cost difference between government sponsored and private marketfunding sources,” the federal housing agency wrote.

Source: The Globe and Mail, The Financial Post 


 Industry News

Sears Canada’s New Management Team has a Plan to Revive the Struggling Store

If a new management team is one ingredient required for a turnaround then Sears Canada – a company with operations in Canada for about 60 years – is on the right path.

Sears, which has a national network of corporate stores, hometown stores, and catalogue and online pick up stores, has recently named a new team: In July, Brandon Stranzl was made executive chairman, while last month Carrie Kirkman was named president and chief merchant.

Notes Kirkman: “We have to ensure we are building a strategy and a vision that is sustainable, [of developing] solid building blocks that will drive a successful Sears business for many years. That [vision] has a hundred pieces under it that have to happen.”

That vision starts with an understanding of the role Sears has played in Canada.  “Before you solidify anything dramatic you need a true sense of what this brand means in Canada,” said Kirkman including the important role the stores play in their local communities particularly the charitable involvement. (For instance, it has had an unbroken, 50-plus year association with the Boys & Girls Clubs.)

“Our job is to connect to our customers, to understand their lives and values. Everybody is selling stuff. You are not going to win flogging stuff,” said Kirkman, adding Canadian family values are also Sears’ values.

“Our values align to their values and I don’t know we have celebrated that in recent years. That is a starting point of a relationship … and you have to build your business that respects that,” she said, noting “we need to do a better job at connecting in more ways with our customer.”

The company’s numbers show the need for that improvement: revenue was off by 8% in the recent nine months compared with the same period last year.

Adds Stranzl: “What’s fundamental to the company’s history is that Sears got its customers in the huge life events. You bought a home, you were raising a family, and you went to the Sears store. Over time this company has lost sight of that connection. We need to win back our customers on some other products,” he said, noting that Sears has about one quarter of the home appliance market. “We can win in the soft side of the business. Our customers want us back.”

Ensuring Sears has the adequate balance sheet is a key part of Stranzl’s work: While losses don’t help, the company’s ongoing efforts to monetize some of its assets does. “We have to fix the company and it’s going to take some time,” he said.

Given the concentrated ownership (hedge funds, Edward Lampert and Sears Holdings own almost 80%) and the resulting small float, Sears Canada is followed by two analysts: Keith Howlett of Desjardins Securities rates it a sell with a $8.50 target while Perry Caicco from CIBC World Markets rates it a sector perform with an $11 target.

Source: Article by Barry Critchley, The Financial Post 


Former Landlords Push Target Canada on Details of RioCan Settlement

 Major landlords of insolvent Target Canada are pushing the retailer to disclose details of a $132-million settlement with its largest landlord, RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust, in exchange for other concessions.

The former landlords, including Morguard Investments Ltd., Crombie Real Estate Invest Trust (REIT) and Smart REIT are questioning whether they are getting a comparatively raw deal in Target’s proposed recovery plan.

“We do feel we have not been fairly treated,” Linda Galessiere, a lawyer at McLean & Kerr LLP, which represents the major landlords, said in an interview with the Globe and Mail.

On Nov. 23, RioCan, which had guarantees covering 18 of the 26 Target stores in its malls, revealed its $132-million settlement with the retailer’s U.S. parent. In exchange, RioCan agreed to drop its claim to the guarantees that parent Target Corp. had pledged to it and other landlords for lost rent on store leases if Target Canada faltered.

Now Target Canada’s proposed recovery plan, filed Nov. 27, calls for other major landlords to release their guarantees, which could be worth millions of dollars. But the other landlords fear Target will pay them less than RioCan secured in relation to their claims.

The squabble will come to Ontario Superior Court on Monday as landlords fight for their guarantees and more information about the RioCan deal.

Doral Holdings Ltd. is among other landlords battling Target’s proposed plan and its provision to eliminate the guarantees.  “Doral’s guarantee was to be treated as sacrosanct under earlier court orders in these proceedings,” Doral president S. Michael Belcastro said in a court document. “It is not under the plan.”

On Jan. 15, Target Canada got court protection from creditors, owing them more than $2.6-billion. It closed all 133 of its stores by mid-April. Its U.S. parent said it would pay landlords their guarantees, but the Canadian division’s recovery plan reneges on that pledge in exchange for the parent subordinating its intercompany claims to those of unsecured creditors.

Many landlords are balking and seeking the RioCan settlement details. “The bottom line is we need that information and it’s premature to vote on the plan without that disclosure,” Vern DaRe, a lawyer at Fogler Rubinoff LLP, which represents Doral, said in an interview.

Doral’s roughly $6-million claim, for example, has been reduced to just about $1-million under the proceedings.

Landlord KingSett Capital Inc. has “serious concerns” about the terms of Target Canada’s plan, said Matthew Gottlieb, a lawyer at Lax O’Sullivan Lisus Gottlieb LLP, which represents KingSett, in a court filing. The plan violates the court order and insolvency laws and “improperly confiscates” some landlords’ rights, he said in a court document.

“Target U.S.’s position creates a clear conflict of interest between the non-guaranteed creditors, who it is said will benefit from the plan’s success as compared to a bankruptcy, and the guaranteed creditors, who lose considerable rights under the plan,” he said in the filing.  “Simply put, the plan confiscates the guaranteed creditors’ rights to benefit the non-guaranteed creditors.”

RioCan officials declined to comment. It could potentially have claimed as much as $250-million, its chief executive officer Edward Sonshine has said.

Target Canada lawyers say in a court filing: “The landscape of this restructuring has shifted considerably, most notably in the form of the material economic contributions that are being offered by Target Corp., as plan sponsor, in order to effect a global resolution of all of the matters arising from the estate” of Target Canada.

Source: Article by Marina Strauss, The Globe and Mail  


Newell Rubbermaid to Buy Jarden Corp. for Approx. $13.2 Billion

It was announced on Monday that Newell Rubbermaid Inc. has agreed to buy diversified consumer products company Jarden Corporation for $13.22-billion (U.S.), adding brands such as Sunbeam kitchen appliances and Coleman outdoor gear, to create a consumer-products giant with $16 billion of sales.

Jarden shareholders will receive $21 in cash and 0.862 Newell shares for each share held, the companies said.

This implies an offer of $60 per share, a 14% premium to Jarden’s closing price on Friday and 24% higher than the closing price on Dec. 4, the last trading day before media reports said merger talks had begun.

Jarden’s shares rose nearly 5% to $55.25 in premarket trading on Monday, while Newell’s shares fell 2.3% to $44.23.

The deal also gives Newell ownership of brands such as Yankee Candle, as well as yearbooks and class rings maker Jostens Inc, which Jarden bought for $1.5-billion in October.

Jarden founder Martin Franklin has built the company through acquisitions, making it one of the largest diversified consumer products makers in the United States, selling everything from firewood to condoms. Jarden has acquired about 30 companies since its founding in 2001, with the latest coming in October when it agreed to pay about $1.5 billion for Visant Holding Corp., which owns the school-memorabilia maker Jostens.

In 2000, Mr. Franklin and long-time partner Ian Ashken, tried and failed to acquire Alltrista Corp., a troubled manufacturer of plastics. After pushing for seats on the board, Franklin was named CEO and Ashken took the role of the chief financial officer. That company became Jarden, where Franklin now serves as executive chairman.

Newell agreed to buy Rubbermaid Inc. for about $ 6 billion in 1998.

Newell Rubbermaid said it expects the deal to expand its presence in food and beverage, baby products and kitchen appliances among key retailers and geographies.

The combined company, Newell Brands, will be led by Newell Rubbermaid’s Chief Executive Michael Polk. Both Martin Franklin and Ian Ashken will join the board.

Newell Rubbermaid shareholders will own about 55% of Newell Brands after the transaction is complete, which is expected in the second quarter of 2016.

Newell Brands will realise cost savings of $500-million over the next four years, the companies said, particularly in the areas of distribution and transportation.

The deal value has been calculated based on 220.35 million Jarden shares outstanding as of Oct. 30.

Both companies’ shares have surged in recent years on the strengthening economy and prior acquisitions that were well-received by investors. Their stock gains highlight investors’ appetite for deals in a torrid period for mergers and acquisitions.

“We come at this from a position of strength,” Mr. Polk said on a conference call with analysts and investors. “I don’t envision much change in the portfolios” over the next couple of years, he said, though adding that “there’s room to play.”

The companies pegged the deal’s total value at $15.4 billion, when including the convertible debt on Jarden’s balance sheet.

The companies are complementary, said Franklin. “They don’t really compete, but they go after the same customers and share areas on the shelf,” he said. Mr. Franklin owned 3.1% of Jarden as of mid-August.

Source: Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal 


Hudson’s Bay Co. Swings to Profit in Q3 But Cuts Sales Outlook

Hudson’s Bay Company posted a 34% rise in quarterly sales last Thursday, helped by higher same-store sales in North America and Europe and strong online sales.

However, the company cut its sales forecasts for 2015 and 2016, citing among other reasons the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar and terrorism incidents on its businesses in Belgium and Germany.

The company, which has been opening stores in North America including Saks and Saks Off 5th, said total same-store sales rose 12.9% in the third quarter.

Overall online sales jumped 36.3% in the quarter ended Oct. 31.

Hudson’s Bay said total sales rose to $2.57-billion ($1.89-billion U.S.) in the third quarter, from $1.91-billion a year earlier.

Net profit was $1-million, or 1 Canadian cent, compared with a net loss of $13-million, or 7 Canadian cents per share.

Excluding certain items, the company posted a loss of 4 Canadian cents per share.

Analysts had expected a profit of 2 Canadian cents per share on revenue of $2.69-billion, according to Thomson Reuters.

Up to last Thursday’s close of $19.90, the Toronto-based retailer’s stock had fallen 19% this year.

The company, which bought Germany’s Kaufhof department store chain in June from Metro for €2.8-billion to expand into Europe, said last month it was planning more acquisitions.

Hudson’s Bay also plans to increase sales significantly over the next five years at about 136 Kaufhof stores in Germany and Belgium.

North American retailers are hoping for a strong holiday season after a less-than-exciting back-to-school quarter, which led to a selloff in retail stocks.

Hudson’s Bay Co. said it is performing well in Canada but its Saks and Saks Off Fifth divisions have been hit hard in the United States by the stronger U.S. dollar and a resulting decline in tourist spending, company executives said Friday.

“International sales are down in the significant double-digits,” Jerry Storch, the department store retailer’s chief executive, said in a conference call with analysts to discuss the third-quarter results. “It’s not a small factor, and it would be a very different story at Saks if that effect were not in place.”

The biggest declines in the third quarter were a result of Canadians avoiding U.S. shopping trips due to the weakened dollar, Storch noted. “Even our own (employees) with discounts don’t shop in the U.S. anymore.”

Falling spending from tourists at the luxury retailer led to a 3.6% decline at Saks in third-quarter same-store sales, which strips out the effects of new store openings on sales growth, even as overall sales at Hudson’s Bay grew.

The company’s less economically sensitive Saks Off Fifth discount luxury division was also affected, eking only modest same-store sales gains of 2.8% in the period after multiple quarters of robust growth.

Weaker sales from international “have significantly impacted Off Fifth,” said chief financial officer Paul Beesley.  “The stores along the Canadian border, the stores in Florida that a lot of Canadians visit — there is a significant impact on same-store sales arising from that.” HBC, which owns Hudson’s Bay stores in Canada and 136 Kaufhof stores in Germany and Belgium, has also noticed an overall decline in U.S. customers hailing from Russia and Brazil, executives said.

In Canada, it was a different story.  The retailer’s department store division, which includes results from its Canadian stores and the U.S. chain Lord & Taylor, increased sales by 5.1%.

“We have been and continue to be very strong in Canada,” Storch said, an area where the company has been upgrading its stores, merchandise selection and digital business for the past seven years. “Our performance with Hudson Bay is among the best in any department store in the world.”

As a result of the hit to luxury and dampened fourth-quarter spending in Europe after the November terrorist attacks in Paris, the company cut its sales forecasts for 2015 and 2016, to a range of $10.7 billion to $11.2 billion from a prior target of $11 billion to $11.5 billion. Hudson’s Bay reduced its 2016 sales guidance to between $14.2 billion and $15.2 billion, from an earlier range of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion.

“We are planning conservatively for next year,” said Storch. “It is the only smart thing to do right now.”

Regardless, executives said the company, which closed its $3.36 billion Kaufhof deal in the third quarter, is in a solid position to execute on its stated strategies in 2016, including upgrading its retail stores, becoming more efficient due to increased scale, and unlocking value from its sizable real estate portfolio.

Analyst Irene Nattel of RBC Capital Markets maintained her outperform rating on the shares, noting the anticipated volume shortfall is not out of line with industry trends.

“Although total sales guidance was revised lower, the company continues to expect low single-digit same store sales growth (unchanged) and foreign exchange rates that are consistent with prior guidance,” Nattel said in a note to clients last Friday.

Analyst Brian Morrison of TD Securities maintained his buy rating on the shares but decreased his price target on the shares to $33 from $36.

“We are not surprised by the downward revision to guidance based on peer reports and the general state of the retail environment in the U.S.,” he wrote in a note to clients. “That stated, the magnitude of the revision is more than we had anticipated.” Morrison said HBC’s balance sheet is “adequately positioned to endure the current environment” and see the company through ongoing investments that should improve its retail outlook. “We reiterate our previous commentary that there appears to be a lack of identifiable near-term catalysts to HBC,” he added. “That stated, we believe that the ongoing investments across the retail banners should improve the outlook for fiscal 2017 and fiscal 2018, and that management continues to make progress in surfacing the value of its real estate portfolio.”

Source: Reuters, The Financial Post   


Mobile Pay Wars Heat Up as Wal-Mart Launches Own Mobile System

The mobile payment wars are heating up.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said last week that it’s launching its own mobile payment system that will allow shoppers to pay with any major credit or debit card or its own store gift card through its existing smartphone app at the cash register.

It started testing the new payment feature last Thursday at its stores in the Bentonville, Arkansas area, where the retailer is based.  It plans to launch the payment system called Walmart Pay in all 4,500-plus U.S. stores in early next year.

It’s part of Wal-Mart’s overall mobile strategy to making shopping easier and faster, but the launch is the latest salvo in the battle for mobile payments that’s in the early stages. Wal-Mart has moved into the field as Apple’s one-year-old tap-and-pay system is being expanded to other merchants like Best Buy and KFC and several months afterGoogle launched the Android Pay mobile wallet app and Samsung came out with Samsung Pay. They’re all trying to get a piece of what could be a very lucrative business, but none of them have cracked the market so far.

The move signals that Walmart believes it’s best to build its own system to better serve its customers, even as it backs a retail industry wide mobile payment program that is in test phase.

“We are creating a seamless shopping experience that includes payment,” Neil Ashe, president and CEO of Wal-Mart’s global eCommerce, told reporters on a conference call last Wednesday. “It’s fast. It’s simple, and it’s a secure way for customers to use their smartphone.”

Twenty-two million customers use the Wal-Mart app each month, and more than half of Wal-Mart’s online orders are now coming from a mobile device. This holiday season, Wal-Mart added new features like allowing online shoppers to check in once they get to the parking lot so they could have their online orders ready for pickup.

Wal-Mart executives said that after evaluating various mobile options, they found that they had different constraints, working only on certain devices or payment types. Apple Pay requires iPhones. But Google’s own tap-and-pay services, Android Pay and Samsung’s Samsung Pay require Android phones.

However, Ashe and Daniel Eckert, Wal-Mart’s senior vice-president of services, told reporters the system is designed to integrate with other payment applications like Apple Pay – if the retailer decides to include them.

Wal-Mart’s move could be a blow to Merchant Customer Exchange, or MCX, set up a few years ago by a consortium of retailers and restaurants to create an industrywide mobile payment system. Wal-Mart has been a key player. But Wal-Mart executives told reporters they remain excited about the MCX pilot program for the payment system called “CurrentC.” A pilot test is being conducted in Columbus, Ohio, and it involves Wal-Mart and 10 other retailers.

Nevertheless, Eckert noted, “We are listening to the needs of the customer. We are looking at innovating the checkout experience and using payment to do that.”

Wal-Mart’s new mobile payment systems works this way: Shoppers download the Walmart app and then select a payment method.  At the register, they open up the app and then they activate the camera function to scan a QR code on the reader. That connects the phone to the basket of items they’re checking out. Customers can put the phone away and an e-receipt application will be sent to the app.

Mobile-payment services from Apple, Google and Samsung all rely on wireless technology called NFC. The customer merely taps the phone next to a payment machine at the store and authorizes the purchase, usually with a fingerprint ID. But it works only in stores with newer, NFC equipment. Samsung goes further in offering a backup: The phone can mimic the old-school magnetic signals produced by card swipes and work with most existing equipment.

JPMorgan Chase, meanwhile, is working on its own system for mobile payments. But Chase Pay won’t use NFC when it debuts next year. Rather, it will rely on QR that can be scanned by a register.

All of these services offer security benefits: They store and transmit an alternate card number that’s generated by the card issuer. The merchant never gets the real card number, so it remains safe even if the store’s system gets hacked. With Wal-Mart Pay, the company says no card information is stored on the phone, but the real card number is still stored at what it says is a secure data centre.

The retail consortium’s CurrentC system is similar to Apple – but customers don’t use a fingerprint, and it doesn’t use NFC technology. Customers scan a QR code on the reader.

Apple and others have faced some challenges to change the behaviour of shoppers accustomed to just taking out their wallets to pay. Technology at the stores also has not kept pace with the efforts of the like of Apple.

When Apple launched in the U.S., the U.S. had 200,000 tap-capable machines. That’s expected to surpass 1.5 million this year. The growth includes about 100,000 small to medium-sized merchants each month, Apple said. Apple has said that Cinnabon will add Apple Pay to all its U.S. locations next year, while Domino’s company-owned pizza stores will get it by year’s end. Apple also is conducting a pilot program with Starbucks, with a broader rollout next year, while KFC will launch next spring.

Source: The Associated Press 


Dollarama Sees Good Results in Q3 But Expects Bumpy Road Ahead Due to Currency

Dollarama Inc. says it has been able to manage the impact of Canada’s weaker dollar, contributing to substantial growth in sales and profit during the discount retailer’s third quarter announced last week.

The company, which originally sold virtually all items for $1 each, says it has started using $1.25 as its new reference price.

During the third quarter, 59.7% of sales came from prices above $1.25, compared with 54.1% a year ago.

Sales were up 13% from the same time last year, in part because of sales growth at established locations plus the addition of 77 stores, including 16 in the third quarter, to put the total number at more than 1,000.

Net income rose to $100.1 million, or 78 cents per share, with $664.5 million of sales. Year-earlier net income was $73 million, or 55 cents per share, and sales totalled $588 million.

Same-store sales for the quarter ended Nov. 1 grew by 6.4%, which was partly a result of a bigger average transaction as well as more transactions.

However, it was clear that the retailer is bracing for the impact of the low loonie, which it expects to feel over the next few years.

While the company sources the majority of its goods from China, most expenses are paid in U.S. dollars, and though it has managed to mostly slow down the roller coaster this year through the use of foreign exchange contracts in order to hedge the cost of merchandise, it will soon have to get back on the ride with upcoming contracts more in line with current rates.

“Next year in the first quarter you’ll start seeing some impact (of the weak Canadian dollar) and then continuing through the year,” said chief financial officer Michael Ross during an investor conference call Wednesday.

The company expects this will mean a dampening in margins from a fiscal 2016 gross margin that was revised up to 38-39%, to a more modest historical level within the range of 36-37% in fiscal 2017.

“It’s very hard to manage when the foreign exchange is having the ups and downs at this rate. This is really exceptional,” said CEO Larry Rossy.

“We’re just trying to be realistic and say that (repeating) what’s just happened is not realistic.”

Earnings were “well above our estimate of $0.69 per share,” wrote BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Peter Sklar in a note, adding that the improvement was due to boosting product prices and margins in anticipation of “less favourable” exchange rates in the next fiscal year.

“Fiscal 2016 is benefiting from unusually high margins and earnings, which has been positive for the stock,” Sklar wrote.  “However, our view is tempered by the anticipation that margins and earnings will return to more normalized levels in fiscal 2017 as Dollarama implements FX hedge contracts that are more in line with current currency rates.”

The company will be bumping up its highest price point to up to $4 in the second quarter of 2017, a trend that began in 2009 when the “dollar store” first offered items priced at $2.

Dollarama is still vague on what a big-spender will be able to pick up for $4, as management said it had a tough time finding items that fit its needs when the company went on a scouting trip to China in October.

“We came back without much more clarity,” said Rossy.

“I don’t expect there to be that many items in those price points at all … I don’t expect that to have a significant effect next year, but maybe in the future ”

Dollarama is taking the first steps towards accepting credit cards as it prepares to introduce higher priced items next year, with the discount retailer saying it will accept the cards at more than 80 stores in British Columbia starting in early 2016.

Payment with debit cards has steadily grown since Dollarama began to accept them in 2008. Nearly 47% of sales were paid with debit cards in this third quarter, up from 43.8% a year ago.

Source: The Canadian Press, The Financial Press  


 Economic News

Sales of Existing Homes Rise in November; CREA Updates Resale Housing Forecast

Sales of existing homes in Canada rose in November from October as gains in Toronto and Vancouver once again helped offset softness in other markets, statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed on Tuesday.

The number of homes trading hands via MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations rose by 1.8% in November 2015 compared to October to reach its highest monthly level in six years.

There was a fairly even split between the number of markets where sales posted a monthly increase and those where sales declined. The national increase was again led by monthly sales gains in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia and in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales in November 2015 rose 10.9% on a year-over-year basis compared to November 2014 and were up from year-ago levels in two-thirds of all local markets. The increase was again led by the Lower Mainland and GTA. Activity was down sharply in the Calgary region compared to what were historically high levels posted prior to the collapse in oil prices

The national average sale price rose 10.2% on a year-over-year basis in November; excluding Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, it increased by 3.4%.

“Recently announced changes to mortgage regulations will likely boost sales activity in the short term, as buyers jump off the fence to beat the changes before they take effect next year,” said CREA president Pauline Aunger

“Changes to mortgage regulations taking effect in mid-February next year appear aimed at cooling the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto housing markets,” added Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief Economist. “Minimum down payments will be going up for homes that sell for more than half a million dollars, so larger more expensive housing markets will be affected most. Unfortunately, the regulatory changes will also cause unintended collateral damage to housing markets beyond Toronto and Vancouver, including places that are facing economic headwinds from the collapse in oil prices.”

The number of newly listed homes rose 3.1% in November compared to October, led by the Lower Mainland, Calgary, Edmonton, Kingston and Ottawa.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 57.3% in November compared to 58% in October.

There were 5.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2015, down from the 5.5 months recorded in October and the lowest level in nearly six years. The national figure is being pulled lower by increasing market tightness in B.C. and Ontario.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 7.11% on a year-over-year basis in November – the largest gain in over five years.  Year-over-year price growth accelerated for all property types tracked by the index.

Two-storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+8.88%), followed by one-storey single family homes (+6.42%), townhouse/row units (+5.43%) and apartment units (+5.22%).

Year-over-year price growth varied among housing markets tracked by the index. Greater Vancouver (+17.83%) and the Fraser Valley (+12.36%) posted the largest gains, followed closely by Greater Toronto (+10.29%).

By comparison, Victoria and Vancouver Island prices saw year-over-year gains that ranged between 6% and 8% in November.

Prices edged down by about 2% on a year-over-year basis in Calgary and Saskatoon and fell by nearly 5% in Regina. While the home price declines in Calgary and Saskatoon are a fairly recent trend, prices in Regina have been trending lower since early 2014.

Prices edged higher on a year-over-year basis in Ottawa (+0.68%, rose modestly in Greater Montreal (+1.61%) and continued to gain strength in Greater Moncton (+4.81%).

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is.

As mentioned, the actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in November 2015 was $456,186, up 10.2 % on a year-over-year basis.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. If these two markets are excluded from calculations, the average is a more modest $338,969 and the year-over-year gain is reduced to 3.4%. Even then, the gain reflects a tug of war between strong average price gains in housing markets around the GTA and the Lower Mainland of British Columbia versus flat or declining average prices elsewhere in Canada.  If British Columbia and Ontario are excluded from calculations, the average price slips even lower to $302,477, representing a year-over-year decline of 4.7%.

CREA Updates Resale Housing Forecast for 2015 & 2016

Since CREA’s last forecast published in September, housing markets in British Columbia and Ontario have strengthened further. As a result, CREA has raised sales and average price forecasts for these provinces.

While housing markets in other provinces have performed as expected through the autumn, prospects in 2016 for a rebound in oil prices – and by extension, housing markets in oil producing provinces – have dimmed. Accordingly, forecast for sales activity in Alberta has been revised lower, as have forecast average prices in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Additionally, interest rates are now expected to begin rising later than previously expected. Now expected to remain on hold until late next year, low interest rates will continue to support sales and prices next year.

Recently announced changes to mortgage regulations that take effect early next year risk cooling housing markets beyond Greater Vancouver and the GTA, their intended targets. In particular, the regulatory changes are also likely to reduce sales activity in Calgary once they take effect in early 2016.

The forecast for national sales in 2015 has been revised higher, reflecting stronger than anticipated activity in B.C. and Ontario. National sales are now projected to rise by 5% to 504,000 units in 2015, marking the second strongest year on record for home sales in Canada.

British Columbia is projected to post the largest annual increase in sales activity in 2015 (+21.4%), while Alberta (-21.4%), Saskatchewan (-10.8%), and Nova Scotia (-5.1%) will record annual sales declines. Activity in Manitoba is forecast to rise by 2.3% this year.

Home sales in Ontario are projected to rise by 9.3% in 2015. The increase would in all likelihood be higher were it not for a shortage of low rise homes available for purchase in and around the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

Sales in Quebec and New Brunswick are forecast to rise by 4.8% and 5.4% respectively compared to sluggish 2014 results. Newfoundland and Labrador sales are forecast to eke out a gain 3.2% in 2015 on the back of a rebound in the second half of the year, while activity in Prince Edward Island, having benefited from the lower Canadian dollar, is expected be up 18.8% from 2014 levels.

The annual forecast for national average home price growth has been revised upward to $442,600 this year, representing an increase of 8.4%. The upward revision reflects average price gains in British Columbia and Ontario together with a projected increase in their proportion of national sales.

British Columbia will be the only province this year where average home prices rise faster (+11.5%) than the national average. The rise in Ontario’s average price (+8.0%) is forecast to be roughly in line with the national increase.

Elsewhere, average prices in 2015 are forecast to rise by about 2% in Manitoba, Quebec and Nova Scotia, while falling 1.9% in Alberta, 2.7% in Newfoundland and Labrador and by less than 1% in Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island.

In 2016, national sales are forecast to reach 498,600, down 1.1% from 2015 as activity in B.C. and Ontario moderates and housing market conditions soften in Alberta.

Sales declines there will offset activity gains in Quebec and Atlantic provinces, where strengthening economic prospects should translate into a slow and steady improvement in sales amid the continuation of affordable prices due to an elevated supply of listings. The exception is in Newfoundland and Labrador, where economic and demographic challenges are expected to persist in 2016.

The national average price is forecast to edge higher by 1.4% to $448,700 in 2016. Price gains in 2016 are forecast to be strongest in Ontario (+2.9%) due to an ongoing shortage of listings for single family homes coupled with strong demand for them in and around the GTA.

British Columbia and Manitoba are forecast to see average price gains of about 2% in 2016, followed by Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island in the 1.5% range, and by Quebec and New Brunswick with increases of less than 1%.

By contrast, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador are forecast to see average home prices decline by 2.5%, 1.2% and 1% respectively in 2016.

Source: CREA         


Latest U.S. Economic News
       
U.S. Housing Starts Surge, Permits Hit Five-Month High
U.S. housing starts in November rebounded from a seven-month low and permits surged to a five-month high, signs of strength in the housing market that could give the Federal Reserve more confidence to raise interest rates on Wednesday.

Groundbreaking jumped 10.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.17 million units, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. October’s starts were largely unchanged at a 1.06 million-unit rate.

The strong report came as Fed officials were due to resume a two-day monetary policy meeting. The U.S. central bank is expected to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero at the end of the meeting. The first rate hike in nearly a decade is not expected to derail the housing recovery.

November marked the eighth straight month that starts remained above 1 million units, the longest stretch since 2007.  Economists expect U.S. housing starts to average around 1.1 million units for 2015, which would be the highest since 2007 and up from 1.0 million units in 2014.

Robust household formation as labour market strength encourages young adults to leave their childhood homes is underpinning the housing market recovery.

But the sector remains constrained by a persistent shortage of houses available for sale. This has resulted in home prices rising faster than salaries, pushing more people towards renting.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts rising to a 1.135 million-unit pace last month.

Single-family housing starts, the largest segment of the market, increased 7.6% to a 768,000-unit pace. That was the highest reading since January 2008. Groundbreaking on single-family projects rose 8.8% in the South, where most home building takes place.

Single family starts in the West jumped 15.1% to their highest level since September 2007. Starts also rose in the Northeast, but fell in the Midwest.

Starts for the volatile multi-family segment surged 16.4% to a 405,000-unit pace.

Building permits vaulted 11% to a 1.29 million-unit rate last month, the highest since June. Permits are running ahead of housing starts, which means groundbreaking will remained supported in the months ahead.

Permits for the construction of single-family homes increased 1.1% last month. Multi-family building permits soared 26.9%.

Source: Reuters

Underlying U.S. Inflation Creeps Higher in November
Underlying inflation pressures rose in November, which could give the Federal Reserve more confidence to raise interest rates on Wednesday, even as renewed weakness in gasoline prices kept overall U.S. consumer prices in check.

The Labor Department said on Tuesday its so-called core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% last month. It was the third straight month that the core CPI increased by that margin.

In the 12 months through November, the core CPI rose 2.0%, the largest gain since May 2014, after rising 1.9% in October.  The Fed targets 2% inflation and it tracks an index that is running far below the core CPI.

The inflation report was released just hours before Fed officials were due to gather for a two-day meeting. The U.S. central bank is expected to lift its benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero at the end of the meeting on Wednesday, encouraged by a strengthening labour market.

There is optimism that tightening labour market conditions, characterized by a jobless rate now in a range that some Fed officials view as consistent with full employment, and strong domestic demand will put upward pressure on wages and drive inflation toward its target.

The dollar’s pace of appreciation is expected to slow next year, which could ease some of the pressure on goods prices.

U.S. Treasury debt prices fell to session lows, while the dollar rose against a basket of currencies after the data.

The increase in core CPI last month reflected steady gains in the cost of rents, airline fares, new motor vehicles and medical care. They were, however, offset by falling gasoline prices, leaving the overall CPI unchanged last month after a 0.2% increase in October.

In the 12 months through November, the CPI increased 0.5%, the largest gain since last December, after rising 0.2% in October Within the core CPI, rents increased 0.2% after rising 0.3% in October. They were up 3.6% in the 12 months through November, reflecting rising demand for rental accommodation as more Americans shun home ownership.

Medical care costs increased 0.4%. The cost of doctor visits increased 1.1%, while prescription drug prices advanced 0.4%. Hospital costs, however, fell 0.2% after rising in October.

But dollar strength, as well as an inventory glut is keeping price increases for some core goods in check. Apparel prices fell 0.3%, declining for a third straight month. Prices for new motor vehicles edged up 0.1%.

Airline fares increased 1.2% after rising 1.5% in November. There were also increases in the cost of tobacco, education, communication and motor vehicle insurance.

Energy prices fell 1.3%, with gasoline prices dropping 2.4% after rising 0.4% in October. The cost of electricity, however, increased 0.3%. Food prices dipped 0.1%, reversing the prior month’s gain.

Every major grocery store food group index, except fruits and vegetables, fell last month.

Source: Reuters

U.S. Consumer Spending Gauge Rises Strongly; Producer Prices Up
A gauge of U.S. consumer spending rose solidly in November, suggesting enough momentum in the economy for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.

Other data from last Friday showed producer prices increased last month as services cost more, but the underlying trend continued to point to weak inflation pressures.

U.S. retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services increased 0.6% after gaining 0.2% in October, the Commerce Department said. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of GDP.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, surprisingly slowed in September and October. The moderation came despite a tightening labour market, which has started to lift household income.

The latest signs of strength in consumption could see economists bumping up their fourth-quarter growth estimates.

Solid domestic demand supports expectations that the Fed will raise its benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero when policymakers conclude a two-day meeting this Wednesday, despite weak inflation.

The U.S. central bank has not raised rates since June 2006.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said its producer price index advanced 0.3% last month after falling 0.4% in October. But the PPI declined 1.1% in the 12 months through November after sliding 1.6% in October.

November marked the 10th straight 12-month decrease in the index. Dollar strength and continued declines in oil prices amid a glut and slowing global growth have dampened price pressures, leaving inflation running persistently below the Fed’s 2% target.

Last month, overall U.S. retail sales increased only 0.2% as automobile sales fell and cheaper gasoline weighed on receipts at service stations. Retail sales edged up 0.1% in October.

Auto sales slipped 0.4% last month, the largest decline since June, after falling 0.3% in October. Though automakers reported strong sales in November, the units sold were slightly below October’s levels.

Receipts at service stations fell 0.8% after decreasing 1.0% in October.

Elsewhere, sales at clothing stores shot up 0.8%, the largest increase since May. Sales at online retailers rose 0.6% and receipts at sporting goods and hobby stores increased 0.8%. Sales at electronics and appliance outlets advanced 0.6%.

The increase last month in discretionary spending suggested a fairly busy start to the holiday shopping season. However, receipts at building materials and garden equipment stores slipped 0.3% as did sales at furniture stores.   

Source:  Reuters  

  

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