CHHMA - EYE ON OUR INDUSTRY

Volume 13, Issue 44, November 27, 2013

Inside This Issue:
  
• Last Call for Next Week’s Industry Cocktail
• BÉLANGER Appoints New Sales and Marketing Manager; Wins 2013 Supplier of the Year Award from Chalifour Canada
• Sears Canada Lays Off Nearly 800 More Employees
• Sears Holdings Reports Wider Quarterly Loss; Denies Interest in Selling Canadian Unit
• Target Profit Drops Close to 50% in Third Quarter as Canadian Expansion Costs Weigh 
• Lowe’s Canada Adds to Management Team
• Wal-Mart Names Next CEO
• Retail Sales Rise 1% in September as New Car Sales Increase at Fastest Pace in 4 Years
• Wholesale Sales Up for Third Month in a Row
• Canada’s Inflation Rate Drops to 5-Month Low of 0.7% 
• Bank of Canada Chief Says Canadian Housing Market Not a Bubble
• Poll Finds 47% of Canadians Will Head to the U.S. for Black Friday Deals 
Latest U.S. Economic News  


Association News 



Last Call for Next Week's Industry Cocktail 

 

JOIN YOUR CUSTOMERS: Co-op fédérée/Unimat, Groupe BMR, Groupe CDREM, Harts Stores, NAPA/UAP, RONA and Stokes among others on Thursday, December 5th at the Casino de Montreal.

If you haven’t done so already, make plans to come out to this fun evening and enjoy some festive time with colleagues and friends from the industry. 

The Bar Reine de Coeur at the Casino de Montreal offers a warm and relaxing atmosphere where you can enjoy some wonderful food, drinks and conversation as you toast another year-end and prospects to a new one.

For further details and to register now, go to: http://events.chhma.ca/indct2013/indct13main_en.html.  Tickets will not be sold at the door.

We hope to see you there!


 

Member News

BÉLANGER Appoints New Sales and Marketing Manager; Wins 2013 Supplier of the Year Award from Chalifour Canada  

On Nov. 22, BÉLANGER, UPT announced the appointment of Mr. Éric Paul as its new Sales and Marketing Manager. Mr. Paul will report to Jean Bérubé, Executive Vice President and General Manager.

Prior to joining the Bélanger team, Mr. Paul held the position of Retail Marketing Manager at MAAX Bath Inc. 

“I am delighted to welcome Éric to our team,” said Mr. Bérubé in a press release. “He has extensive knowledge of the plumbing industry and has developed strong relationships with many of our sales agents. His expertise in product development will allow him to accelerate the introduction of Bélanger to new markets. Éric will play an important role within our management team in achieving our business objectives in respect to the strategic repositioning plan of our organization.”

With over 45 years of existence, BÉLANGER is a Canadian leader in the design and manufacture of faucets and plumbing accessories. Renowned for its excellent customer service, its enviable reputation has been built on the quality and durability of its products. BÉLANGER has three North American and Asian manufacturing plants, and markets its products under the BÉLANGER, ESSENTIAL, PLUMBPAK, QUIK and H2FLO brands.

In other news, the company also announced last Friday that Chalifour Canada has awarded Bélanger with its 2013 Top Supplier Award.

This award recognizes strong sales growth, high fill rates, innovative products and the ability to collaborate in partnership.

“This award reflects the strong business relationship that has developed between Belanger and Chalifour Canada,” said Andrew Pantelides, Procurement and Merchandising Manager at Chalifour Canada, in a statement. “When committed and experienced partners share a vision and their know-how, the most valuable products are truly distinguished; it’s an honour and privilege to be working closely with a vendor partner like Belanger.”  


 

Industry News

Sears Canada Lays Off Nearly 800 More Employees

Sears Canada Inc. laid off almost 800 employees on Tuesday as the ailing retailer works to improve its operations, raise cash and sell off assets, industry sources say.

The company informed roughly 79 head office employees and 712 home service workers of the terminations in day long meetings yesterday.

Sears Canada also announced a restructuring of its repair services and parts division, contracting out much of the work and streamlining its remaining teams.

In all, the company has about 25,000 staff – roughly 1,800 at head office – down from about 31,000 two years ago when it had 122 department stores. Today it operates 118 outlets, but by early 2015 that number will drop to 111.

The store closures come as Sears agreed to sell lucrative leases back to landlords for hundreds of millions of dollars. Newcomers such as U.S. rival Nordstrom Inc. are picking up the retail space, adding to the rising pressure on all players. While Sears began the leaseback sales with two of its biggest landlords – Cadillac Fairview Corp. and Oxford Properties Group Inc. – it now is in discussions with other landlords as well, sources said.

The latest staff cuts come under new chief executive officer Douglas Campbell, a turnaround specialist formerly at Boston Consulting Group who took over the top job at Sears in September when Calvin McDonald unexpectedly left.

Mr. Campbell vowed he would continue on Mr. McDonald’s path, including cutting costs and selling non-core assets.

George Minakakis, CEO of strategy firm Inception Retail Group Inc. and author of Last Retailer Standing, said Sears’ struggle is good news for U.S. discounter Target Corp., which is having struggles of its own. Target, which arrived in Canada in March, is poised to steal business from rivals and “the most vulnerable brand right now is Sears,” Mr. Minakakis said. The retail battle will get even fiercer because, “I take it for granted that Target will rebound,” he added.

Last week, Sears announced a special $509-million, or $5-a-share, dividend and hinted at another potential payout next year. The dividend is being financed largely from the $400-million that Sears Canada is receiving from the sale of its leases on five stores in Ontario and British Columbia, including its flagship Eaton Centre location in Toronto.

Another dividend payment could come early next year if the company closes the $315-million sale of its joint-venture interest in eight Quebec properties, expected in January.

The initiatives have helped Sears Canada’s stock, which has outperformed the S&P TSX by 61.87 per cent during the past year.

The shares also got a boost this week after reports that parent Sears Holdings Corp. was looking for a buyer, although the company said its controlling shareholder isn’t in talks with investment bankers about its stake in its Canadian division.

Nevertheless, Sears Canada approached at least one retail rival recently about its interest in buying the business, sources have told The Globe and Mail.

Mr. Campbell said last week that investor interest in Sears reflects not only the asset sales that led to the dividend but also the underlying strength in the company’s third-quarter results.

He pointed to lower costs and a 1.2% increase in same-store sales, the first such increase since 2008. “I can unlock value by asset sales, but I can’t create value unless I’m building the operations,” he told The Globe and Mail last week.

He said the company isn’t considering any other asset sales at this time, nor is the board looking at paying a regular dividend.

The share jump is good news for Edward Lampert, the U.S. hedge-fund manager who is also CEO and controlling shareholder of U.S.-based Sears Holdings Corp., which owns 51% of Sears Canada.

Sears Canada said it lost $48.8-million or 48 cents a share for the third quarter, compared with $21.9-million or 22 cents in the year-earlier period. The wider loss included severance and restructuring costs. Revenue dropped to $982.3-million from $1-billion.

Source: The Globe and Mail

 

Sears Holdings Reports Wider Quarterly Loss; Denies Interest in Selling Canadian Unit
 

Sears Holdings Corporation reported a wider quarterly net loss last Thursday after sales fell at both its namesake department stores and its Kmart discount chain and it invested in more promotions targeting rewards members.

The company is trying to engineer a turnaround. Sales have been falling since 2005, when hedge fund manager Edward Lampert merged the two U.S. chains in an $11-billion deal. 

The net loss in the third quarter ended on Nov. 2 widened to $534-million, or $5.03 a share, from $498-million, or $4.70 a share, a year earlier.

Excluding severance costs, tax-related adjustments and a pension expense, the loss was $2.88 a share.

Sales fell 6.7% to $8.3-billion, missing the analysts’ average estimate of $8.9-billion, according to Thomson Reuters.

Sears has been closing stores, tightly managing inventory, selling real estate and shedding assets, but the retailer is still struggling to generate cash from its operations.

Wall Street has criticized Lampert for not investing enough in stores and for relying on financial engineering to boost profits. Last week, he said Sears was spending more to make targeted offers to members of its Shop Your Way rewards program. He said 70% of sales are now made to Shop Your Way members.

Same-store sales fell 3.1%, including a decline of 2.1% at Kmart. At that chain, weak demand for groceries, consumer electronics and toys offset strength in the apparel and “seasonal and outdoor living” categories.

A 4% drop at Sears U.S. reflects decreases in most categories, including the consumer electronics, lawn and garden, tools, home appliances and apparel.

At the end of the quarter, total debt was $4.7-billion.

The Hoffman Estates, Illinois-based company recently refinanced some debt, sold its stake in eight properties it owns with the Westcliff Group and terminated some store leases in Canada. It said it was on track to generate $2-billion of liquidity during the fiscal year.

On his own and through his ESL Investments hedge fund, Lampert holds about 55.34% of Sears stock, according to the latest U.S. securities filings.

Meanwhile, Sears Holdings is denying reports it wants to sell off Sears Canada, but this didn’t seem to deter investors Monday.

Shares of the U.S. retailer jumped 7% after the New York Post reported that Mr. Lampert had spoken to several major investment banks including Goldman Sachs about overseeing a sale process of Sears Canada, citing anonymous sources.

Other sources cited in the article said they are skeptical any banks would step up to conduct the ‘prospective process,’ noting Lampert has been quietly soliciting potential interest in the retailer for some time now without much luck.

“Eddie never actually hires banks,” one insider told The Post. “He just sucks their brains and does what he wants.”

According to the Post, “What Lampert wants . . . is to accelerate his recent moves to turn Sears Canada into cold, hard cash, despite announcing plans last year to mount a data-driven “turnaround” of the Toronto-based department store.”

Both Sears or Goldman declined to provide comment to the Post.

Sears Canada also declined to comment on the report when asked by Canada’s Business News Network.

“It is false to claim that Mr. Lampert, the CEO of Sears Holdings, is interviewing or otherwise is in talks with investment bankers about Sears Holdings’ interest in Sears Canada,” said a statement by the Hoffman Estates, Ill.-based retailer on Monday.

Sears Canada has seen its shares rise more than 30% in the past month amid market speculation about the end game of several of its initiatives, including property sales and special dividends. Its stock rose about 2% on Monday.

Last week, Sears Canada announced it is paying its shareholders a hefty dividend as part of a move that will send nearly half a billion dollars in cash back to the U.S. parent company and Lampert.

Word of the extraordinary payment of $5 per share that will be made on Dec. 5 came on the same day it posted a wider-than-expected third-quarter loss.

Sears Canada is in the midst of a turnaround plan that has involved selling key stores and laying off thousands of employees over the past few years.

In October, the retailer announced it was closing its downtown Toronto store at the Eaton Centre and exiting four locations in a $400-million deal to sell leases back to its landlords.

The biggest winners in the Sears Canada payout will be its largest shareholders: parent Sears Holdings Corp., which owns 51% of the company and hedge fund ESL Investments Inc., headed by Lampert, which owns 27.6%. Lampert owns another 10.2% stake in Sears Canada.

These transactions according to industry sources, has fanned worries among Sears suppliers and executives alike about the future of the chain.

“Eaton Centre [in Toronto] was one of their best locations,” an exec at one supplier said. “They’re insulting us if they tell us they want to stay in business.”

The latest sale of profitable locations follows the sell-off of other high-performing stores in Vancouver, Calgary and Ottawa to Nordstrom. It’s a template for what’s to come, according to Mark Cohen, a professor at Columbia Business School who had been CEO of Sears Canada from 2001 to 2004.

“When legitimate companies sell assets, they reinvest by paying down debt or using the funds to invest in the business,” Cohen said.

“What’s Eddie Lampert doing? Putting the money in his pocket.”

“If anybody harbors the illusion that this guy has any capability or intent of running this company anyplace but into the ground, he’ll lose that illusion real fast,” Cohen added.

The Canadian company’s revenue has been falling for seven years straight as competitors such as Winners, Target and Canadian Tire have won market share.

The dire straits stand in sharp contrast to a decade earlier, when it refused three separate merger overtures by rival Hudson’s Bay, according to a person close to the situation.

Now, insiders say Hudson’s Bay doesn’t appear to be interested in a deal. Target and Walmart may pick up some locations in a liquidation scenario, although the former said last week it continues to suffer losses after a surprisingly weak start in Canada this spring.

“Sears is going to close all their stores, liquidate all their goods and distribute the cash to shareholders,” an industry source predicted.
“Then they’ll wait for a period of time and then file for bankruptcy.”

Source: Reuters, The Financial Post (The New York Post)

 

 


 
Target Profit Drops Close to 50% in Third Quarter as Canadian Expansion Costs Weigh

Target Corporation saw its third quarter net income plunge a greater than expected 47% as the department store chain deals with higher expansion costs and poorer than anticipated performance north of the border.

The company has faced a harder than expected go at it in this country after it began opening stores in March, surprising some customers for not matching its U.S. stores’ prices and missing its initial sales projections. Target also discovered too many of its Canadian customers buy goods regularly at multiple retailers instead of using Target as a one-stop shopping destination.

Target was counting on Canada not only to bolster its financial results but also, as its first foray outside of the United States, to serve as a blueprint for future international growth. But the company has not been able to deliver on its slogan, “Expect more. Pay less.”

Many Canadians had shopped at Target stores south of the border and expected the same low prices and trendy fashions – and were disappointed on both counts.

Even when initial demand was strong, Target’s fledgling supply chain couldn’t keep up and shelves were often bare. And rivals here raced to raise their game.

Target Canada president Tony Fisher said recently that the company was trying to convince customers that its prices were just as low or lower than market rivals, noting it is a challenge to alter people’s ingrained shopping habits.

“It is essential during the startup period to continue influencing price perception,” he told analysts three weeks ago.

Opening the final two of 124 Canadian stores this year [last] Friday, Target has been clearing out excess home and apparel items “so we can start 2014 in a much healthier position,” Mr. Fisher commented last Thursday.

“We still had inventory that we had committed to from overseas that was basically shipped to Canada, and once we landed it, we realized our sales were under expectations and now we need to do what we can to get rid of that inventory,” he added.

The retailer saw lower than anticipated Canadian sales of US$333-million and lowered its full-year adjusted earnings forecast. Canadian operations reduced Target’s earnings per share by 29¢ in the third quarter and the company’s first division outside of the U.S. more than doubled its operating loss compared with the second quarter, to US$238-million.

The quarterly gross margin rate of 15% in the Canadian segment was also lower than expected, executives said, and they anticipate continued margin pressure in the fourth quarter.

Target said it is now looking to earn an adjusted profit per share of $4.59 to $4.69, down from a previous forecast of $4.70 to 4.90.

Nevertheless, executives remain optimistic about the division and Target is still sticking by its goal of reaching US$6-billion in annual sales and US80¢ in annual earnings in Canada by 2017.

For the three months ended Nov. 2, Target Corp. earned US$341-million, or 54¢ per share, compared with US$637-million, (96¢) in the same period a year ago. Analysts were anticipating earnings of 64¢ per share.

Excluding Canadian-related costs and other items, the Minneapolis-based mass merchant earned 84¢ per share.

Revenue rose 2% to $17.26-billion from $16.93-billion, below analysts’ expectations of $17.38-billion.

Canada wasn’t Target’s only problem, however. At its U.S. stores, traffic fell 1.3 %, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of declines and third-quarter same-store sales rose just 0.9% as consumers tightened their wallets in an uncertain economy

“Over the long-term our expectations haven’t changed at all,” for Canada, CEO Gregg Steinhafel told a conference call with analysts, saying the executive team had “rebooted” early forecasts for this market. Under that revised metric, the unit’s current performance is now better than expected in the first group of stores to open here now that executives have a better handle on Canadian consumer shopping patterns and preferences.

“They are exceeding those newer, revised forecasts,” Mr. Steinhafel said.

Once the excess inventory is cleared, “we are very confident that we are going to be back in the mid-30s in terms of the overall gross margin,” he said.

Mr. Fisher said Target is making its biggest Canadian marketing investment to date this quarter, a “full court press” in flyer, online, television, outdoor and its discount loyalty card advertising.

“We are finally getting that [customer shopping] history we never had,” Mr. Fisher said, providing data that allows the retailer to better assess how to replenish stores.

“We are seeing a continued improvement in the Canadian business. We are definitely not planting the victory flag yet … we are going to be in a period of continuous improvement for a long time.”

Source: The Financial Post, The Globe and Mail

 



Lowe's Canada Adds to Management Team

Lowe's Canada announced last Thursday that it has completed changes to the company's senior leadership team to help position the company to continue to grow its business across Canada.

Leadership changes at its corporate office in Toronto have taken place over the past few months and include key appointments and newly created roles in Merchandising and Marketing, Operations and Supply Chain, and Finance and Administration.

"I am thrilled to add such a talented group of seasoned leaders to the Lowe's Canada organization," said Sylvain Prud'homme, President, Lowe's Canada. "These newly appointed senior executives were hand-picked from some of the country's top retailers. The diversity of their backgrounds will enhance our capacity to understand our customer's expectations, continue to remain relevant and build stronger partnerships with our vendor community as we grow our business."

The new appointments include:

Nick Padovano was appointed to the newly created position of Head of Operations and Supply Chain. In this role, Padovano is responsible for leading the company's Store Operations, Store Support and Supply Chain functions, in addition to overseeing Commercial and Installed Sales as well as Distribution. Padovano has over 30 years of operations experience in the retail industry and has a deep understanding of the competitive retail landscape in Canada. Most recently, Padovano was Senior Vice President, Store Operations at The Bay/Lord and Taylor. Prior to that, he was Senior Vice President, Store Operations at HBC-Zellers where he was responsible for all aspects of operations for 275 Zellers stores, and previous to that he was Senior Vice President, Store Operations at HBC-Bay/Zellers overseeing 100 Bay stores and 300 Zellers stores. Padovano has an Associate of Applied Science degree in Retail Management from Niagara Community College.

Igor Halencak was appointed to the newly created position of Head of Merchandising and Marketing. In this role, Halencak is responsible for leading the company's Merchandising and Marketing strategies, as well as the planogram facility. Most recently, Halencak was Senior Vice President, Home, Hardlines and Major Appliances at Sears Canada. Prior to that, he spent 14 years with Loblaw's Companies Limited in various senior positions in merchandising, promotions and category management. His most recent role with Loblaw's was Vice President, Conventional Grocery.

Tony Tutolo was appointed to the newly created position of Head of Finance and Administration. In this role, Tutolo is responsible for leading the company's Finance, Loss Prevention and Information Technology functions, as well as Project Management and Merchandising Support. Tutolo has over 20 years of experience in risk management, information technology and finance with an extensive background in retail and consumer packaged goods. Most recently, Tutolo was Vice President of Finance, Risk and Information Technology at the Beer Store and Brewer's Distributed Limited. Prior to this, he held senior executive roles with Samsung Electronics Canada and Sara Lee Bakery Canada. Tutolo has a B.A. from Wilfrid Laurier University and has achieved his C.G.A.

Source : Lowe's Canada


Wal-Mart Names Next CEO

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. named company veteran Doug McMillon to replace Chief Executive Mike Duke, who will retire on Jan. 31 after five years at the helm of the world’s largest retailer.   McMillon, 47, is currently CEO of Wal-Mart’s international division. He will start in his new role on Feb. 1, the company said in a statement on Monday.

“This leadership change comes at a time of strength and growth at Walmart,” said Rob Walton, chairman of Walmart’s board of directors. “The company has the right strategy to serve the changing customer around the world, and Doug has been actively involved in this process. The company has a strong management team to execute that strategy.”

McMillon was promoted to his current role as head of the company’s second-largest operating unit in January 2009. Prior to that, he was president and CEO of Sam’s Club.

“McMillon was responsible for the growth area for Wal-Mart – international sales – and that’s why he got the nod,” said Walter Loeb, president of retail consultancy Loeb Associates.

Wal-Mart, whose shares were little changed before the bell, has struggled to find traction in the U.S., with its same-store sales frequently missing Wall Street estimates.

The retailer has faced intense competition from dollar stores and other discounters such as Target Corp.

Same-store sales in the U.S. fell for the third straight quarter last quarter. International sales rose 4.1%, excluding the effect of currency fluctuations.

During Duke’s five-year tenure as chief executive, Wal-Mart’s share price has risen by just over half, underperforming a more-than doubling of the S&P 500.

Duke, 63, will continue as chairman of the executive committee of the board and stay on as an adviser to McMillon for a year. Duke will be paid $1.1-million for the year to Jan. 31, 2015, Wal-Mart said in a regulatory filing. The company plans to make an announcement on McMillon’s successor as CEO of Walmart International by the end of the fiscal year.

Source: Reuters, Wal-Mart



Economic News

Retail Sales Rise 1% in September as New Car Sales Increase at Fastest Pace in 4 Years
 
 
Canadian retail sales rose by a larger-than-expected 1% to $40.7 billion in September from August on the back of higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, Statistics Canada data showed last Friday. Compared to a year earlier, sales are 3.6% higher.

The monthly advance was greater than the 0.3% increase foreseen by market analysts and marked the third consecutive month that retail sales have risen. The last three-month growth streak was from September to November 2012.

Gains were observed in six of the 11 subsectors, accounting for 55% of retail trade. However, excluding receipts at motor vehicle and parts dealers, sales were relatively flat.

In volume terms, retail sales were up by 1.0%.

The August retail sales increase was reduced to 0.1% from an earlier estimate of 0.2%.

Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers rose 4.1% in September. Following two consecutive monthly declines, sales at new car dealers increased 5.0%, the largest monthly gain since January 2009. This advance was attributable to a higher volume of sales. Gains were also reported at automotive parts, accessories and tire stores (+1.8%) and used car dealers (+0.7%). Sales at other motor vehicle dealers were down 1.3%. Over the past 12 months, sales are up 10.5% at motor vehicle and part dealers.

Gasoline station sales rose 0.8%, the fourth increase in five months, and are up 0.5% year-over-year.

Sales at building materials and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+0.8%) were up for a third straight month and have risen 4.1% compared to September 2012.

Receipts at health and personal care stores (+0.2%) rose for a seventh consecutive month, reflecting an increase in volumes sold. Year-over-year, sales are 3.2% higher.

Sales at food and beverage stores fell 0.3% in September, after increasing 1.4% in August. The main contributor to the decline was lower sales at supermarkets and other grocery stores (-0.6%). Higher sales were reported at convenience stores (+1.5%) and at beer, wine and liquor stores (+0.3%). Food and beverage store sales were flat compared to September of last year with supermarkets and other grocery stores down 1.0%.

Following gains in July and August, sales at clothing and clothing accessories stores were down 0.6% in September. The decrease was largely attributable to lower sales at clothing stores (-1.0%) and shoe stores (-2.0%). Year-over-year sales remain up 4.8%.

Sales at electronics and appliance stores fell 1.1% in September, the fifth straight monthly decline, and remain 5.3% lower than a year ago.

Sales at furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.5% during the month and 2.8% over the past 12 months.

Retail sales rose in nine provinces in September. Ontario (+1.0%) reported the largest gain in dollar terms, in part because of higher sales at new car dealers. This was the fourth increase in five months for the province.

In Alberta, retail sales increased 2.0% in September following relatively stable sales the previous two months. This gain was mainly a result of higher sales at new car dealers as well as at building materials and garden equipment and supplies dealers.

The 0.7% sales gain in Quebec more than offset the decline in August.

Retail sales in British Columbia (+0.4%) increased for the fourth time in five months. In Nova Scotia (+0.3%), sales were up for a seventh straight month.

Prince Edward Island (-0.3%) was the lone province to post a sales decline in September.

Source: Statistics Canada, Reuters


Wholesale Sales Up for Third Month in a Row

Statistics Canada reported last Wednesday that wholesale sales were up for the third month in a row in September, rising 0.2% to $49.8 billion. Year-over-year, wholesale sales are up 2.6%.

The agency said sales increased in four of the seven subsectors, accounting for 45% of wholesale sales.

In volume terms, wholesale sales were up 0.2%.

The largest gain in dollar terms was in the miscellaneous subsector, where sales were up 1.3%. The increase occurred primarily because of a 4.3% advance in the agricultural supplies industry, following three consecutive monthly declines.

The motor vehicle and parts subsector rose 0.6%, its fourth increase in five months. The gain was based on growth in the new motor vehicle parts and accessories industry (+3.0%), which posted its largest advance since October 2012. After rising 4.7% in August, sales in the motor vehicle industry edged down 0.1% in September.

Sales in the farm product subsector rose 4.8%, the fifth consecutive monthly increase following four months of decline.

The largest decline in dollar terms was in the food, beverage and tobacco subsector (-0.4%). This drop was the result of a 0.6% decrease in the food industry, which accounts for 90% of the subsector's sales.

Wholesale sales of building materials and supplies were $7.1 billion in September, up 0.2% from August and a 3.9% gain from September 2012.

Wholesale sales of electrical, plumbing, heating and air-conditioning equipment and supplies stood at $2.1 billion in September, down 0.8% from August but a 1.2% increase from September 2012.

Wholesale sales of metal service centres were $1.6 billion in September, down 0.6% from August but an increase of 5.7% from September 2012.

Wholesale sales of lumber, millwork, hardware and other building supplies were $3.3 billion in September, up 1.2% from August and a 5.0% increase from September 2012.

Wholesale sales were up in six provinces in September.

In Ontario (+0.7%), sales increased for the sixth time in seven months. Higher sales across several subsectors contributed to the growth.

Sales rose 4.6% in Saskatchewan as a result of higher sales in the farm product as well as the building material and supplies subsectors.

In September, three of the four Atlantic provinces reported gains. Newfoundland and Labrador was the lone Atlantic province to post lower sales (-3.1%), its third consecutive decrease.

Following seven gains in eight months, sales in British Columbia fell 2.5% in September, mainly attributable to lower sales in the building material and supplies subsector.

Sales in Quebec decreased 0.6% in September.

Wholesale inventories declined 0.2% to $61.8 billion in September.

Declines in the motor vehicle and parts (-2.3%) and the building material and supplies (-1.5%) subsectors, more than offset gains in the other five subsectors.

The largest increases in dollar terms were in the personal and household goods (+1.1%) and the machinery, equipment and supplies (+0.4%) subsectors.

The inventory-to-sales ratio was unchanged at 1.24 in September.

Source: Statistics Canada 


Canada’s Inflation Rate Drops to 5-Month Low of 0.7%

 
Lower gasoline prices pushed Canada’s annual inflation rate in October down to a five-month low in September, Statistics Canada said last Friday.

The agency’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7% in the 12 months to October, following a 1.1% increase in September.

The figure was less than the 0.9% forecast by market analysts and underlines just how little pressure the Bank of Canada is under to raise interest rates. October’s rate is the lowest since the 0.7% recorded in May.

Although there were several factors underlying the decline, the biggest reason was gasoline, which plunged by 5.1% from September and by 4.3% from October 2012.

Lower gasoline prices were a factor in all provinces in October, with Saskatchewan (-8.6%) recording the largest year-over-year decrease and Ontario (-1.8 %) posting the smallest.

The other side of the picture was that there were few goods and services where price pressures appeared to be building significantly last month.

In October, five of the eight major components recorded year-over-year gains. Higher shelter and food costs led the rise in the CPI. In contrast, the transportation and the clothing and footwear components contributed the most to the deceleration in the CPI.

Shelter costs rose 1.3% in the 12 months to October, following a 1.4% gain in September. The shelter index was led by a 3.2% year-over-year increase in property taxes. Consumers also paid more for rent, while mortgage interest cost declined 2.6%.

Food prices rose 0.9% in October compared with the same month last year, after posting a 1.2% gain in September. This slower increase was largely attributable to smaller year-over-year price gains for food purchased from stores, notably fresh vegetables and bakery products. Consumers paid 1.4% more for food purchased from restaurants in the 12 months to October, after paying 1.5% more in September.

The transportation index decreased 0.1% on a year-over-year basis in October, following a 0.8% increase in September. While consumers paid less for gasoline in the 12 months to October, they paid 1.7% more for the purchase of passenger vehicles, after paying 1.4% more in September.

Prices for clothing and footwear declined 0.7% in the 12 months to October, following a 0.4% increase in September. This decline was mainly attributable to a smaller monthly price gain in October compared with the same month last year.

Consumer prices rose at a slower year-over-year rate in seven provinces in October compared with September. Quebec recorded the largest deceleration. In New Brunswick, prices rose at a faster year-over-year rate, and in Saskatchewan prices increased at the same rate in October as in September. British Columbia was the only province to record a decline in consumer prices in the 12 months to October.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI declined 0.1% in October, following a 0.1% increase in September.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, four of the eight major components posted decreases in October. The clothing and footwear index (-0.7%) recorded the largest decline on a seasonally adjusted basis, while the transportation and the health and personal care indexes were both down 0.2%. The recreation, education and reading component fell 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

After seasonal adjustment, the index for food rose 0.1% while before adjustment, the cost of food declined 0.2% in October. This indicates that the decline in food prices was largely seasonal, although smaller than the typical decrease in October.

The Bonk of Canada’s closely watched annual core index, which strips out the prices of more volatile items such as energy and some foodstuffs, dipped slightly to 1.2% in October from 1.3% in September.

The bank, which targets 2% inflation, has kept its key overnight interest rate at a near-record low of 1% since September 2010. Last month, citing the below-par economy, the central bank removed its tightening bias and made clear that rates would not be going up any time soon.

On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted core index posted no change in October, after rising 0.1% the previous month.

Overall, the inflation picture in Canada remains tame.

Source: Statistics Canada, The Canadian Press


Bank of Canada Chief Says Canadian Housing Market Not a Bubble     

Canada’s housing market is not in a bubble and not likely to suffer a sudden and sharp correction in prices unless there is another major global shock to the economy, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz said last week.

The central banker, testifying before the Senate banking committee on his latest economic outlook last Wednesday, said he believes the most likely scenario is a soft landing where home prices stabilize, although he acknowledged that an imbalance in the market and high household debt remain key risks.

Poloz used the testimony to pointedly disagree with a couple of forecasting organizations that weighed in recently on the Canadian situation — the Fitch Rating service that judged Canada’s housing market as 21% overpriced, and an OECD recommendation that he start raising interest rates in a year’s time.

“Our judgment is (the housing market) is a situation that is improving, this is not a bubble that exists here that would have to be corrected,” he said. “If there is a disturbance from outside our country, that’s another analysis.”

Poloz said most of the fundamentals surrounding the Canadian housing market appear headed in the right direction. Prospects for the economy are improving, he noted, which should create more jobs.

As well, he said banks are now demanding higher credit scores from new borrowers and added that he does not believe there has been serious overbuilding in the housing market.

“It looks expensive,” he said of home prices. “But which markets are expensive? Well those markets have been expensive my whole life,” he said, noting that Toronto and Vancouver both absorb high rates of immigration.

Asked to put odds on his soft landing scenario, Poloz said he would place it in the 60-to-80% probability range.

Poloz was asked about the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s advice that the Bank of Canada start moving off its 1% policy rate by the end of 2014 and keep hiking until it reaches 2.25% by the end of 2015.

In unusual clarity for a central banker, Poloz said he respectfully disagreed. In his analysis, he said, there remains plenty of slack in the Canadian economy and inflation, at 1.1%, is well south of the central bank’s 2% target.

“Those things together give us the judgments we reach and obviously they differ in a material way from what the OECD is saying … and it’s our job to reach that final conclusion,” he told the senators.

Last month, Poloz surprised markets by dropping the central bank’s official tightening bias and moved to a more neutral stance, which signals that the bank is as likely to cut as to raise interest rates in the future.

Analysts interpreted the move as the bank telling markets it won’t likely start raising borrowing costs until the first or second quarter of 2015. Markets reacted to that assessment by selling off the loonie.

On the overall economic outlook, Poloz said he believes the global economy is “healing” and that Canadian growth will start picking up next year as the U.S. recovery intensifies.

The bank’s official forecast is for 2.3% growth in 2014, following a lacklustre 1.6% pace this year, and for 2015 to see the economy speed up to 2.6%.

The testimony before the banking committee was the first for Poloz, who took charge of the central bank in June, and senators took the opportunity to question him on a wide range of topics, including the dearth of women on the new currency.

Poloz repeated previous remarks that he was “wide open” to the idea of finding images that include more women in the next roll-out of bank notes, but cautioned that won’t happen overnight — the current new bills took eight years to develop.

On the issue of Dutch disease — the theory that a commodity bubble such as oil exports pushes up the value of a nation’s currency and undermines manufacturing — Poloz said that while generally a “myth,” there was a certain element of truth to the theory.

He said oil exports helped maintain the Canadian economy during the recession and did contribute to the loonie’s appreciation, increasing competitive pressures on the manufacturing sector.

But he said the collapse in global demand also was a major factor and overall, revenues from the oil exports were a net benefit to Canada.


Source: The Canadian Press


Poll Finds 47% of Canadians Will Head to the U.S. for Black Friday Deals

Last year on Black Friday, Silvana Castronovo was standing in a Best Buy in Buffalo, N.Y., at 4 a.m., watching two people duke it out over an electric toothbrush.

“It was kind of funny. The security guards were around them. Everyone was just watching, wondering what they were fighting over,” said the 29-year-old tech worker.  “It was an electric toothbrush. They were pulling at it. They both had their hands on it and they wanted it.”

The absurdity she witnessed was not enough to make Castronovo rethink her Black Friday tradition.

At the end of the month, the Vaughan, Ontario resident and three friends will again make the trip south — five hours this time to Pennsylvania — to cash in on the biggest shopping day of the year in the U.S.

A poll released last Thursday by the Bank of Montreal says 47% of Canadians it surveyed planned on shopping on Black Friday in the U.S. this year — up from 41% last year — with each shopper expecting to spend an average of $292.

BMO finance expert Laura Parsons said Canadians continue to flock to popular cross-border destinations because they believe they can’t find the same kind of deep-discounted deals at Canadian retailers on Nov. 29.

“It’s terrible to say, but some of the selection in the U.S., the unique items, is what’s driving us south to do our Christmas shopping,” she said from Calgary. “The outlets aren’t here in Canada and things are probably a lot cheaper there than in Canada.”

And those who are planning to shop are looking for a good deal. A recent study by Google Canada found that 60% of those surveyed go online to research discounts offered on Black Friday or Cyber Monday, the Monday following the American Thanksgiving.

In addition to online research beforehand, experts say it’s important to stay on track by making a list of what you want to buy and by drawing up a budget to help avoid impulse spending.

But most agree that the top tip to lessen the chaos of Black Friday shopping is to get there early to avoid disappointment. Typically, stores open at midnight on Black Friday but, this year, many stores are opening their doors as early as 6 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 28. The best deals are often in limited supply and sold on a first come, first served basis.

Black Friday marks the start of the crucial holiday shopping season for retailers in the U.S. — the time when most begin to turn a profit, or head into the black.

And while some Canadian retailers, particularly U.S. entrants like Target and Nordstrom, have embraced Black Friday discounts, the industry here hasn’t jumped on board with the idea, says Ken Wong, a marketing and business strategy professor at Queen’s University.

“Now I think if retailers can get their collective act together, there is certainly great incentive for them to try to create an event around which everybody can launch. I don’t get the sense that there is that collective response in Canada,” he said from Kingston, Ont. Castronovo said images of people sleeping outside a store, or a frenzied mob scene charging into a store as doors open on Black Friday are pretty accurate. And so are the discounts.

One year, she waited for four hours to buy a camera for $200 — half price. Another year, she scored a $4 Disney pyjama set for her niece and came home with a handful of movie DVDs at 99 cents a pop. Then there was that one time when she didn’t’ come back to Canada with anything but 10 boxes of Pillsbury cake mix.

“It’s an adventure,” laughed the avid shopper. “You never know what’s going to happen.”


Source: The Canadian Press





Latest U.S. Economic News


U.S. Housing Permits Breach 1 Million Mark, Home Prices Surge
Permits for future U.S. home construction rose to their highest in nearly 5-1/2 years in October and prices for single-family homes notched big gains in September, suggesting a run-up in mortgage interest rates has not derailed the housing recovery.

The data releases on Tuesday were the latest signs of strength in the U.S. economy, despite headwinds from last month's budget fight, which led to a partial government shutdown, and rising mortgage rates. 

"These reports are unequivocally in line with our view that the housing recovery remains well on track, as the lack of supply will continue to support both construction activity and house prices," said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York.

Building permits jumped 6.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.03 million units, the highest since June 2008 and beating economists' expectations for a 930,000-unit rate.

Permits, which lead housing starts by at least a month, increased 5.2% in September and were up 13.9%t from a year ago.

A separate report showed the S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas increased 13.3% in September from a year ago, the strongest gain since February 2006. Prices were up 0.7% in August.

Some economists said the housing data, combined with stronger-than-expected October nonfarm payrolls and retail sales reports, raised the risk the Federal Reserve could scale back its massive monthly bond purchases as early as December.

The U.S. central bank noted at last month's meeting that the recovery in the housing sector had slowed somewhat in recent months. Fed policymakers next meet on December 17-18.

While permits are not counted in GDP, they are a key indicator of economic activity and the sturdy gains in both September and October should ease concerns the housing market recovery was stalling.

Higher mortgage rates have slowed the pace of home sales, but demand for accommodation as household formation continues to recover from multi-decade lows is expected to keep supporting residential construction.

Home resales fell in October for a second straight month and confidence among single-family home builders has ebbed somewhat since nearing an eight-year high in August.

Permits for the multi-family home sector surged 15.3% in October after increasing 20.1% in September. Permits for buildings with five units or more reached their highest level since June 2008.

Single-family home permits, the largest segment of the market, increased 0.8% after falling 1.9% in September.

Last month, there were strong increases in permits in the West and also the South, where permits were the highest since January 2008. They fell in the Midwest and were flat in the Northeast.

The department postponed the release of figures on housing starts and completions for September and October until December 18 because the collection of data was affected by the 16-day shutdown of the government last month. November data also will be published at that time.

The partial shutdown of the federal government also delayed the publishing of the September and October permits reports.

Source: Reuters

U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls in November
U.S. consumer confidence fell in November as Americans worried about their future jobs and earnings prospects, according to a private sector report released on Tuesday.

The Conference Board said its index of consumer attitudes fell to 70.4 from a upwardly revised 72.4 the month before. Economists had expected a reading of 72.9, according to a Reuters poll.

October was originally reported as 71.2.

"Sentiment regarding current conditions was mixed, with consumers saying the job market had strengthened, while economic conditions had slowed," Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement.

"However, these sentiments did not carry over into the short-term outlook."

The expectations index fell to 69.3 from 72.2, while the present situation index fell to 72.0, from 72.6.

Consumers' labor market assessment was little changed. The "jobs hard to get" index ticked lower to 34.0 from 34.9 the month before, while the "jobs plentiful" index ticked up to 11.8% from 11.6%.

Source: Reuters

U.S. Pending Home Sales Hit 10-Month Low in October
Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell for a fifth straight month in October, hitting a 10-month low and adding to signs of cooling in the housing market.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Monday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, slipped 0.6% to 102.1, the lowest level since last December.

Contracts were 1.6% below last October's levels.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected signed contracts, which become sales after a month or two, to rise 1.3%.

The Realtors group said a 16-day partial shutdown of the federal government last month had sidelined some potential buyers.

"In a survey, 17 percent of realtors reported delays in October, mostly from waiting for IRS income verification for mortgage approval," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun in a statement.

The report was the latest indication of a moderation in the U.S. housing market recovery. A report from the Realtors group last week showed home resales also fell in October.

Sales have been dampened by a rise in mortgage rates.

Source: Reuters
 

 

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