CHHMA - EYE ON OUR INDUSTRY

Volume 13, Issue 38, October 16, 2013

Inside This Issue:
  
• Make Plans to Attend the Industry Cocktail on December 5th
• International Home+Housewares Show – March 15-18, 2014
• Sears Canada’s Head Office Braces for More Layoffs Under New CEO
• Canadian Tire REIT Said to Have Raised $263.5 Million in IPO
• Fourth Quarter Sales and Profit Up for Costco but Below Market Expectations 
• Canadian Home Resales Continue to Show Strength in September
• Canadian House Prices Gain in Third Quarter: Royal LePage Survey Shows
• New Home Prices in Canada Edge Up in August and a Tame 1.8% Year-Over-Year Strong
• Canada-U.S. Price Gap Narrows Somewhat in Latest BMO Report
• Companies Hesitant to Hire and Invest: Bank of Canada Survey
• Canada’s Unemployment Rate Drops to 5-Year Low as Fewer Youths Look for Work
• U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls to 9-Month Low



Association News 



Make Plans to Attend the Industry Cocktail on December 5th 
 
This year’s Industry Cocktail will be taking place on Thursday, December 5th, from 5:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. at Bar Reine de Coeur located at the recently renovated Casino de Montreal.

This traditional industry year-end event brings together a wide spectrum of people from the industry including manufacturers, distributors and retailers.

The location offers a fun and relaxing atmosphere where you can enjoy some wonderful food, drinks and conversation with your industry colleagues while enjoying the festive season together. 

Further details and information on how to register will be ready later this week, but in the meantime, please mark your calendars and make your plans to attend now.  




Industry News
 
International Home+Housewares Show – March 15-18, 2014

The 2014 International Home+Housewares Show is taking place from Saturday, March 15 to Tuesday, March 18 at McCormick Place in Chicago.

The show brings together the world’s largest audience of home goods and housewares professionals including 2,100 exhibitors from over 40 countries and 60,000 attendees representing over 120 countries.

It is the place to see leading housewares manufacturers and suppliers from across the world, innovative new products and merchandising, as well as the latest consumer lifestyle and product trends for all areas of the home, both inside and out – all under one roof.

The show offers an opportunity to attend first-class learning seminars and meet with both independent specialty retailers and corporate buyers within the industry.

For show information and free online pre-registration, go to:

Visitors: http://www.housewares.org/attend                     Exhibitors: http://www.housewares.org/exhibit

 

And while in town for the show, make sure to attend the 65th Canada Night reception which is being held at the InterContinental Hotel in Chicago on Sunday, March 16, 2014 from 6:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. This event provides and opportunity for Canadian vendors, agents and suppliers to get together with their peers and Canadian retailers in a social environment while celebrating the common bond of being Canadian and enjoying the beer and wine bar and some excellent cuisine.

Further details and registration info for Canada Night registration details will be available later in the year.



Sears Canada's Head Office Braces for More Layoffs Under New CEO

(Article by Hollie Shaw, The Financial Post)

Head office employees at Sears Canada are bracing for more layoffs as the struggling retailer moves forward under its new turnaround specialist CEO.

The Financial Post reported that the company held a series of head office meetings last week with employees at multiple levels and departments to outline its strategies, according to sources, which include a goal of streamlining head office and decreasing its salary costs.

The scope of the pending cuts was not revealed, and no store-level employees will be affected, sources said.

The reports come at a time of renewed turbulence for the retailer, which saw the surprise exit last month of CEO Calvin McDonald, who was replaced by former chief operating officer Douglas Campbell.

While trying unsuccessfully to boost its sales, the retailer has also been tackling a top-heavy cost structure in recent years. Sears Canada has seen its revenue deteriorate by more than $2-billion during the last decade, to $4.3-billion in 2012 from $6.5-billion in 2002.

Sears Canada has reduced its expenses by $100-million in the past two fiscal years and is aiming to trim an additional $100-million to $200-million from fixed costs in the next couple of years. In August, the company laid off 245 head office employees in IT and finance.

Industry analysts have speculated the retailer’s streamlining efforts will move to the fore with the announcement of Mr. Campbell’s promotion to CEO three weeks ago. Company chairman William Crowley lauded the former marine’s “disciplined approach,” as “instrumental in managing costs and driving efficiencies,” at Sears Canada.

Vincent Power, the retailer’s spokesman, would not comment yesterday on “rumours or speculation” about upcoming layoffs.

“Like most organizations on an ongoing basis, we do review our organizational structure to make sure it is in line with the needs and size of the business,” Mr. Power said. There is “nothing imminent” to be announced with respect to head office staff, he added.

The company has about 1,600 employees at its head office out of a total workforce of 25,000.

In addition to cutting costs and exiting or limited slow-selling categories, the retailer had also raised cash by selling off the leases of three unproductive store locations, and currently has the option to sell a fourth in Scarborough within five years.

But the revival attempt by Mr. McDonald had yet to show traction in the company’s results; in the second quarter, revenue fell 9.6% to $960.1-million, and same-store sales decreased 2.5%. Net earnings were $152.8-million compared with a net loss of $9.8-million in the second quarter last year, but without a one-time gain on the sale of leases back to landlords, Sears Canada would have lost $11.2-million, or 11¢ a share.

Retail expert Wendy Evans, president of Evans and Company Consultants Inc. in Toronto, said Sears Canada is one of a few retailers who could benefit from additional streamlining.

“Sears has been very traditional in terms of structure and culture and that has to change,” she said.

“There are likely a lot of savings and efficiencies that could be realized in terms of category management and how they are managing their purchasing. You get into a habit of doing things the old way and there are a number of retailers who are like that, who are not streamlined and efficient. So it is time for that to happen.”

The August layoff of 245 IT and finance employees was the second round of pink slips at Sears Canada this year, following a layoff of 700 in January, when the bulk of cuts came from the retailer’s stores and distribution centres. Sears also laid off 470 employees in late 2011 and early 2012.

Source: The Financial Post

 


 


Canadian Tire REIT Said to Have Raised $236.5 Million in IPO
(Article by Doug Alexander, Bloomberg News)

Canadian Tire Corporation’s real estate investment trust (REIT) raised $263.5 million in an initial public

offering, according to two people familiar with the transaction.

CT Real Estate Investment Trust, created by the country’s largest sporting goods retailer, sold 26.35 million trust units for $10 each, with an initial yield of 6.5%, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the terms aren’t public.

Canadian Tire created the REIT to spin off about 72% of its real estate portfolio, the company said in a Sept. 24 presentation filed with Canadian regulators. The REIT will acquire 256 commercial properties totaling 19 million square feet after its IPO closes the week of Oct. 21, the company said.

Canadian Tire will hold 85% of the REIT after the sale closes, the documents show. Royal Bank of Canada and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce led the sale.

REITs, which receive preferential tax treatment from the government, are companies that invest in income-producing real estate and pay out most of their income to investors through monthly cash distributions. Robert Nicol, a Canadian Tire spokesman, declined to comment.

Canadian Tire is following Loblaw in selling property to unlock value from their stores in Canada’s largest cities. Loblaw’s Choice Properties raised $400 million in June in Canada’s largest REIT IPO. The Hudson’s Bay Company also said it’s considering a REIT after it completes a US$2.4 billion takeover of New York-based luxury retailer Saks Inc.

CT REIT will trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol CRT-U.

Source: Bloomberg News, The Financial Post 



Fourth Quarter Sales and Profit Up for Costco but Below Market Expectations

Costco Wholesale Corporation reported last week a 1.3% increase in its fourth-quarter profit on higher same-store sales, although results missed Wall Street expectations.  The wholesale club has recently benefited from an increase in store traffic, as cost-conscious shoppers look to save money by making bulk purchases. Costco’s gasoline pumps also drive customers to its clubs.

Costco, which operates 638 warehouses, said it plans to open 11 additional warehouses by the end of this year.

In the latest quarter ended Sept. 1, Costco’s net income rose to $617 million, or $1.40 a share, from $609 million, or $1.39, in the year-ago period.

Revenue edged up 0.8% to $32.49 billion.

Analysts were looking for per-share earnings of $1.46 and revenue of $32.82 billion.

The earnings miss was Costco’s first in two years. Following the report, analysts cited IT and healthcare as possible areas that drove costs higher in the fourth quarter, which had one week less than last year.

Total costs rose 0.8% to $31.5 billion, including a 1.8% rise in selling, general and administrative expenses. Merchandise costs increased 0.7% and provision for income taxes fell 3.2%.

Fourth-quarter operating margin remained level at 2.9%.

Same-store sales jumped 5%, excluding currency fluctuations. In the U.S., same-store sales were up 5%, while international clubs saw 7% growth.

Revenue from membership fees climbed 3.2% to $716 million.

Sterne Agee analysts noted that Costco’s operating margin and September sales likely outpaced other retailers. Janney Capital Markets called sales strength in the U.S. “impressive” given retail concerns over the government shutdown.

Net income for the 52-week fiscal 2013 was $2.04 billion, or $4.63 per share, compared to $1.71 billion, or $3.89 per share, in fiscal year 2012. Net income for fiscal 2013 was positively impacted by a second quarter $62 million ($.14 per diluted share) tax benefit in connection with the portion of the special cash dividend paid in December 2012 to the Company 401(k) plan participants.

Revenue for fiscal 2013 was $105.22 billion, up 6.1% from $99.14 billion the year before.

Same-store sales for the 52-week period were up both 6% excluding currency fluctuations, in the U.S. and internationally.

Costco currently operates 638 warehouses, including 454 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 85 in Canada, 34 in Mexico, 25 in the United Kingdom, 18 in Japan, 10 in Taiwan, nine in Korea, and three in Australia.

Source: Costco Wholesale Corporation, FOXBusiness



Economic News
 
Canadian Home Resales Continue to Show Strength in September


According to statistics released on Tuesday by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales across Canada posted a small month-over-month increase in September while sales were up 18.2% on a year-over-year basis.

CREA reported that the number of home sales processed through the MLS Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations and other co-operative listing systems edged up a modest 0.8% on a month-over-month basis in September.

Sales improved on a month-over-month basis in just over half of all local markets, with gains in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto offsetting declines in Calgary and Montreal.  Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity remained roughly on par with the 10-year average in September. The 18.2% increase compared to year-ago levels reflects weakened activity at that time.

Sales were up on a year-over-year basis in about 75% of local markets, led by gains in Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Greater Toronto.

“Year-over-year increases in the sales over the past couple of months highlights how activity softened across much of the country following the introduction of tighter mortgage rules last summer,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

“While the momentum for sales activity began improving a few months ago, it may be losing steam after having only just climbed back in line with an average of the past 10 years,” Klump added. “Even so, one can see large year-on-year changes when comparing activity to a month like September 2012, when sales dropped to the lowest level for that month in more than a decade.”  Meanwhile, economists at Bank of Nova Scotia had correctly been forecasting a seventh consecutive monthly gain in seasonally adjusted sales for September. But they don’t think the pickup will last.

“Our view remains that sales are being brought forward at the expense of sales into next spring’s key market on mortgage interest rate concerns,” they wrote in a research note prior to the data being released. “As juicy mortgage rate commitments dating back to the early summer period face expiration, the options to purchase are being triggered before they expire and get reset higher.”

They also noted that, in addition to people who want to make use of their pre-approved mortgage rates, there is likely a general expectation among home buyers that interest rates are at a cyclical bottom.

CREA said some 340,980 homes have traded hands across the country so far this year. That stands 1.8% below levels recorded in the first three quarters of 2012.

The number of newly listed homes declined by 1.4% on a month-over-month basis in September. Slightly more than half of all local markets recorded declines, led by Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Greater Toronto, London & St. Thomas, Ottawa, and Montreal.

The small monthly increase in sales activity combined with a decline in new listings pushed the national sales-to-new listings ratio to 56.1% in September compared to 54.8% in August. While the national housing market has firmed in recent months, it remains in balanced market territory where it has been since early 2010.

“Sales activity across much of the country has improved in recent months following a slow start to the year and new listings in some areas have not kept pace,” said CREA President Laura Leyser. “Depending on where they are, there may be a bit more competition among buyers for limited inventory in the months ahead.”

The number of months of inventory was 5.8 months at the end of September, down from 5.9 months one month earlier. As with the sales-to-new listings ratio, the current months of inventory measure marks a slightly firmer but still well balanced national market.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in September 2013 was $385,906, an increase of 8.8% from the same month last year. Year-over-year average price gains in recent months reflect the decline in sales activity recorded last year in some of Canada’s larger and more expensive markets which caused the national average price to drop.

If Greater Toronto, Greater Vancouver, and Calgary are removed from the national average price calculation, the year-over-year increase is 4.3%. A better gauge of what’s going on with prices is the MLS Home Price Index (MLS HPI), which is not affected by changes in the mix of sales the way that ‘average’ price is.

The Aggregate Composite MLS HPI rose 3.13% compared to September 2012, slightly larger than the 2.8% gain in August.

Year-over-year price growth picked up among all property types tracked by the index with the exception of two-storey single family homes. That said, this property type continues to see the strongest growth, with the Benchmark two-storey single family home price up 3.56% year-over-year in September.

This was followed by one-storey single family homes (+3.44%), townhouse/row units (+3%) and apartment units (+1.79%).

Year-over-year price growth in the MLS HPI was mixed across the markets tracked by the index.

Source: CREA, The Globe and Mail



Canadian House Prices Gain in Third Quarter: Royal LePage Survey Shows  

The Royal LePage House Price Survey released last Thursday showed the average price of a home in Canada increased between 1.2% and 4.1% in the third quarter of 2013.

The survey showed a year-over-year average price increase of 3.7% to $418,686 for standard two-storey homes, while detached bungalows rose 4.1% to $381,811. During the same period, the average price for standard condominiums saw a more moderate increase, rising 1.2% to $246,530. Sales volumes surged in a number of regions, as Canadians re-entered the housing market after sitting on the sidelines for more than a year - marking the end of the most significant housing market correction since the 2008-2009 global recession.

"Canada experienced a significant housing market correction over the last four quarters that most in the nation missed entirely," said Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage. "Many regions experienced dramatic slowdowns in the number of homes trading hands, but news of double-digit unit sales declines went largely unnoticed, over-shadowed by a macabre fascination with the prospect of a U.S.-style home price collapse, which of course never transpired. Our over-heated real estate market of 2011 and early 2012 drove some to the sidelines. Home price appreciation ground to a halt for a year - a necessary breather and predictable market response."

"Our housing market turned a corner in the third quarter. Buyers returned to the streets in droves, resulting in a sharp increase in home sales. In many cities, there simply weren't enough properties on the market to satisfy demand, which put upward pressure on prices for the first time in 2013," continued Soper. "We expect this positive momentum to continue through the all-important spring market of 2014, buoyed by a combination of pent-up demand, increasing consumer confidence and continued low interest rates."

Source: Royal LePage



New Home Prices in Canada Edge Up in August and a Tame 1.8% Year-Over-Year
 
New house prices in Canada rose moderately in August from the previous month and were a tame 1.8% higher than a year earlier, Statistics Canada reported last Thursday. 

The New Housing Pricing (NHPI) rose 0.1% in August, following a 0.2% increase in July.

Calgary was the top contributor to the national increase, with prices rising 0.6% in August. Builders in Calgary reported that market conditions, increased material and labour costs as well as a shortage of developed land contributed to higher prices. Calgary has been a top contributor to advances in new housing prices over the past nine months.

The largest monthly price advance in August occurred in Windsor (+1.0%), where builders cited an increase in material, labour and land development costs as the primary reasons for higher prices. Prices in the region have been relatively flat over the past year, despite a couple of modest monthly advances.

New housing prices rose 0.3% in both Montréal and Saskatoon. Market conditions contributed to the price increase in Montréal, while higher prices in Saskatoon were attributed to material, labour and land development costs.

Negotiated selling prices contributed to lower prices in four metropolitan areas in August. Prices for new homes in Vancouver fell 0.3%, while Halifax posted a 0.2% decline. Both Ottawa–Gatineau and Victoria were down 0.1%.

Prices were unchanged in 9 of the 21 metropolitan areas surveyed.

As mentioned, on a year-over-year basis, the NHPI rose 1.8% in the 12 months to August, following similar annual increases over the previous three months. 

The two main contributors to the annual advance were Calgary (+6.1%) as well as the combined metropolitan region of Toronto and Oshawa (+2.2%). Year-over-year price increases in Calgary have been generally accelerating since early 2012, while price gains have been trending downwards in the Toronto and Oshawa region over the same period.

Other significant year-over-year increases occurred in Winnipeg (+5.1%), St. Catharines–Niagara (+3.4%), Regina (+2.6%) and Hamilton (+2.4%).

Among the 21 metropolitan areas surveyed, Ottawa–Gatineau (-0.2%), Victoria (-0.9%) and Vancouver (-1.3%) experienced 12-month price declines. This marked the first year-over–year price decrease in Ottawa–Gatineau since January 1998.

Source: Statistics Canada




Canada-U.S. Price Gap Narrows Somewhat in Latest BMO Report

A report last week from BMO Nesbitt Burns showed the price gap on a basket of goods - it describes it as a “semi-random” sample – has narrowed somewhat to 10% from 14% when it last sampled cross-border prices in May of 2012.

But BMO chief economist Douglas Porter said the drop is mainly attributable to a modest decline in the value of Canadian dollar over the same period.

“It’s entirely the currency,” Mr. Porter said. “The underlying gap hasn’t really changed in the past year.”

“While the high-flying currency has lost some altitude in the past year – it’s down about 4 per cent this year – the slide has largely stalled in recent months at levels still above what we would consider fair value, let alone the OECD’s measure of purchasing power parity,” Mr. Porter said, adding he expects the Canadian dollar to weaken, averaging 95 cents U.S. next year, but to only a bit below where it currently stands.

One of his interesting findings is that, while goods such as cars and books have seen some “notable narrowing” in the past six years, Target Corp.’s “much-ballyhooed” jump into Canada has had a limited effect on prices.

Target Canada president Tony Fisher has blamed a combination of higher transportation costs, wages, tariffs and Canada’s thinly-spread population for the chain’s inability to match prices available in the United States.

BMO also found that Ottawa’s removal of tariffs on select baby and sporting goods in the March federal budget had “only a limited impact – unsurprisingly, given their targeted nature.”

Ottawa is now reportedly considering the possibility of extending tariff cuts to other items, part of what is expected to be a new focus by the Conservative government on the consumer to be outlined in the Throne Speech later this month.

“This is another small step in the ‘right’ direction, but not enough to alter the underlying fundamentals facing the economy,” said Mr. Porter, who has tracked the price gap for several years.

“One of those lingering fundamentals is that the Canada-U.S. price gap remains locked in place, still drawing a phalanx of cross-border shoppers southbound from Canada,” he added. 

Mr. Porter found a gap of 34% on baby items, 19% on running shoes, 14% on hardware, 13% on housewares and 10% on magazines.

Autos and digital cameras are 6% higher in Canada, electronics 3%, and sporting goods 1%.

Good news for the tech crowd: Tablet computers are 2% less.

A Senate report earlier this year concluded that the price gap is a function of a multitude of factors, including economies of scale, the larger U.S. market, transportation costs and so-called country pricing phenomenon that leads many retailers to charge more for brand-name items in Canada. (Click here  for further info on the Senate report: http://www.chhma.ca/Public/Page/Files/361_chhmagovwatch_janfeb13.pdf)

Mr. Porter pointed out that Canada’s consumer price index is up 0.6% in the past year, compared to 0.1% in the U.S.

Over the longer haul, however, Mr. Porter said prices are narrowing. But he said it is very gradual and concentrated in a few high-profile categories, including cars and books, where there has been a “notable” narrowing in the six years that BMO has been tracking prices.

“Consumers are better informed and are demanding more competitive prices,” Mr. Porter said. “Some of it is happening because of consumer pressure.”

This, of course, affects how and where we shop, and the suggestion is that many of us are heading to malls such as those in Buffalo, N.Y., and Bellingham, Wa.

“With the price gap remaining substantial, the tourism deficit continues to groan,” said Mr. Porter.

“Over the past year, the travel deficit totalled nearly $18 billion, or roughly 1% of GDP. In the decade before the currency first hit parity in 2007, the tourism shortfall averaged less than 0.3% of GDP per year.” 

Overnight trips to the United States, which can be a proxy for cross-border shopping and moves almost in line with the value of the loonie, has been on the rise. The number of Americans visiting Canada has been near record lows, he said.

“To put it in perspective, as recently as a decade ago, there were more Americans visiting Canada than Canadians visiting the U.S., where the ratio now is nearly 1:3,” Mr. Porter said.

Source: The Globe and Mail


Companies Hesitant to Hire and Invest: Bank of Canada Survey

Canadian companies are turning progressively gloomier about the slow pace of the world’s economy and say they want to see signs of progress before ramping up hiring and investment, a new Bank of Canada survey suggests.
 
The findings of the central bank’s latest quarterly business outlook (autumn survey) released last Friday is not good news for those hoping to see a strong economic rebound in the second half of this year or in 2014 after what has been almost two years of sluggish growth.

“Weak demand and uncertainty regarding future demand continue to weigh on firms’ investment decisions and near-term capacity planning,” the bank said in its summation.

Part of the reason is that a majority of business reported flat or falling sales in the past year.

“Many firms continue to report that uncertainty is affecting investment decisions, notably by leading them to postpone projects, or to shift their focus toward initiatives that involve less risk or smaller outlays - such as repairing and replacing existing equipment – or that target new or different segments of demand,” the central bank said.”

The fact that businesses are less confident about investing is likely a disappointment to Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, who said in a recent speech that the economy is at a tipping point and poised to do better.

The most dour finding in the sampling of 100 firms, which the bank says is representative of the economy as a whole, is that there were almost as many saying they will cut back on spending on new machinery and equipment over the next 12 months as those saying they plan to increase it — 27% compared with the 34% who expect to spend more.

The positive seven-point balance is the lowest in four years.

Hiring intentions fared better, with a positive balance of 30%, but that too represented a relatively weak finding — five points lower than in the second-quarter results.

On the question of sales, company executives appeared more optimistic that prospects will pick up over the next 12 months, but that’s largely because they saw the growth of sales deteriorate over the previous year.

As well, the bank said most anticipate any improvement on this front will be limited, given low expectations for demand in the U.S. — their major export market — and stiffening competition.

Inflation expectations also remain muted. The survey, conducted between Aug. 26 and Sept. 19, showed that businesses expect “slightly” higher input prices in the next 12 months. But the reading remains “close the low levels seen over the past eight surveys,” the bank said.

Analysts believe the central bank will keep interest rates at current super-low levels for at least another year and possibly well into 2015.

In a separate survey of senior loan officers, the bank said there had been an easing of overall lending conditions for companies in the third quarter, but the firms themselves reported no change in credit conditions.

Source: Bank of Canada, The Canadian Press



Canada's Unemployment Rate Drops to 5-Year Low as Fewer Youths Look for Work 
 
Canada’s labour market plateaued in September, after months of erratic gains and losses, and the nation’s unemployment rate declined to the lowest level in nearly five years as fewer people — mainly youths — were
looking for work. 

About 11,900 jobs were created last month, all of them full-time positions in the private sector, Statistics Canada said last Friday.

The most notable declines were in manufacturing and public administration, while the finance, insurance and real estate sector added the most jobs.

Economists had expected about 10,000 jobs to be created in September.

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, declined to 6.9% in September — the lowest level since December 2008 — from 7.1% in August.

The decline came as 21,400 workers aged 15 to 24 stopped looking for employment.

“That suggests that students or recent grads were less eager to work at the start of the school year than seasonals expect,” said Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets.

Last month’s minor increase in job creation follows a gain of 59,200 positions in August, which was in contrast to a loss of 39,400 workers a month earlier.

Statistics Canada said the private sector accounted for 73,600 of the new jobs in September, while the public sector shed 16,300 positions.

Full-time employment was up by 23,400, while part-time jobs fell by 11,500.

In September, employment was up in New Brunswick and down in Saskatchewan, while there was little change in the other provinces. Prince Edward Island has the highest jobless rate, at 11%, while Saskatchewan and Alberta are tied for the lowest, at 4.3%.

The manufacturing sector lost 26,000 positions in September, while construction workforce — usually a driver of job creation — declined by 14,100.

Public administration fell by 17,400. Employment in this industry has been declining since February, down 7.2% or 71,000 over this seven-month period.
 
Employment in finance, insurance, real estate and leasing rose by 33,000 in September, following a decline the previous month. Despite these recent changes, employment levels in this industry are similar to one year earlier.

Employment increased by 19,000 in natural resources, accounting for all the growth since September 2012 (+4.7% or +17,000).

The number of people working in agriculture increased by 8,500 in September, following a decline the previous month. Employment in this industry remains at a level similar to that of 12 months earlier.

Canada’s job growth has slowed as the economy struggles to maintain momentum.

“Reaction could be muted given that the unemployment rate drop came from a participation rate move rather than a burst of hiring, and might therefore mean less for Bank of Canada policy, particularly since the youth part rate could be volatile at this time of year,” said Mr. Shenfeld.

Over the past 12 months, employment was up 1.2% (+212,000). During this same period, however, the employment rate was little changed, as employment and the working-age population grew at a similar pace.

Since September 2012, the number of hours worked rose by 0.8%, as part-time employment grew at a faster pace than full time.

In the past year, the construction industry has grown the most, percentage-wise (+6.5% or 82,300 positions), while manufacturing employment has seen the biggest drop (-4.1 % or -73,000). Private-sector employment has grown 1.8% while the public sector has fallen 0.8%. Self employment is up 1%.

In New Brunswick, employment increased by 2,800 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.7%. Employment in this province was at a level similar to that of 12 months earlier.

Employment in Saskatchewan fell by 3,200. Despite this decline, employment grew by 3.1% year-over-year, the second highest growth rate after Alberta. In September, the unemployment rate in Saskatchewan was 4.3%, which was the same as in Alberta and the lowest among the provinces.

In September, employment in Ontario was little changed. At the same time, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.3% as fewer youths looked for work. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment in the province grew by 1.7%, above the national average of 1.2%.

Despite little change in employment in Quebec, the unemployment rate declined 0.3 percentage points to 7.6% as fewer youths searched for work. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment in the province was little changed, as gains in the first five months of the period were offset by recent losses.

While employment for youths aged 15 to 24 was virtually unchanged in September, their unemployment rate declined by 1.2 percentage points to 12.9%. This decline was largely a result of fewer youths searching for work. Compared with 12 months earlier, youth employment increased 1.7%, mainly the result of gains in the first half of the period.

Employment in September was also little changed among people aged 25 to 54 and remains at a level similar to that of September 2012.

In September, employment among people aged 55 and over was unchanged. Compared with 12 months earlier, however, there were 140,000 more men and women working in this age group (+4.3%), largely a result of population aging.

Source: Statistics Canada



U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls to 9-Month Low

U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated in October to its weakest in nine months as the first federal government shutdown in 17 years undermined Americans’ outlook on the economy, a survey released last Friday showed.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment fell to 75.2 in October, down from 77.5 in September. This was the lowest figure since January.  The early October reading fell short of the 76.0 forecast by economists recently polled by Reuters.

Prolonging the budget impasse that caused the government shutdown, which has kept hundreds of thousands of federal employees and contractors out of work, would exact a toll on consumer spending and the overall economy.

“The timing of the fiscal debacle is very bad for retailers going into the year-end holiday season,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York.

Economists had forecast a government shutdown would subtract at least 0.1 percentage point a week from the GDP. They said the damage would intensify if the shutdown lasts more than two weeks.

While the sentiment gauge declined for a third straight month, the size of the decrease was relatively small, as worries about a protracted shutdown were mitigated by some optimism about income and inflation, survey director Richard Curtin said.

“Consumer confidence posted a surprisingly small decline in early October despite widespread awareness of the government shutdown,” Curtin said in a statement.

“The muted response may be due to consumers giving progressively less credence to the economic scare tactics that have framed the debates over the past few years,” he said.

The survey showed a modest pickup in household plans to buy cars and homes.

“To be sure, this can quickly change if the impasse continues,” Curtin said of a possible further deterioration in consumer sentiment.

For now, the negative developments in Washington have hurt consumers’ outlook rather than their current assessment on the economy and their own finances.

The survey’s gauge of consumer expectations fell to 63.9, the lowest level so far this year. This compared with 67.8 in September and a forecast of 67.5.

“We could see further deterioration in the second half of the month,” BNP’s Shulyatyeva said.

The measure on consumers’ 12-month economic outlook fell to 71 in early October, the weakest level since December 2011. It fell 15 points from September, which was the biggest one-month drop since December amid anxiety about “fiscal cliff.”

However, the index of current conditions edged up to 92.8 from 92.6 last month. Analysts had projected a reading of 91.0.

The resilience in this measure signalled some optimism about rising income. “When asked about their prospects for household income gains during the year ahead, the median expected increase was the highest in five years,” Curtin said.

Consumers’ view on inflation eased from September following the Federal Reserve’s decision to refrain from paring its $85 billion monthly bond purchases to support the economy recovery. Mortgage rates and other consumer borrowing costs fell from a month earlier.

The one-year inflation expectation fell to 2.9% from 3.3%, while the five-to-10-year inflation outlook slipped to 2.8% from 3.0%.

Source: Reuters

 

 

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