Economic News
Toronto Condo Projects Spark Increase in Housing Starts
Canadian housing starts rose 8.1% unexpectedly in August from July as a few large condo projects in Toronto, presold in late 2010 and early 2011, broke ground, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported on Tuesday.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was 224,900 units in August, up from 208,000 units in July.
Analysts were expecting starts to slow to 200,000 units.
But rather than slowing down, the pace in August extended a streak of 200,000-plus units being created to nine months in a row. So far this year housing starts have been about 15% above last year’s levels, led by a surge in multi-unit/condominium construction.
“The increase in housing starts in August was the result of a few, large multi-unit projects in the Greater Toronto area. This increase is primarily a reflection of the high level of pre-sales in some of these large multi-unit projects in late 2010 and early 2011, which is in line with job gains at that time,” said Mathieu Laberge, CMHC’s deputy chief economist. “The higher level of starts recorded in Atlantic Canada and British Columbia in August reflect low levels of activity in July rather than an increasing trend that was registered in August. Overall, moderation in housing starts activity is still expected for the remainder of 2012 and 2013.”
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 10.2% to 205,900 units in August. Urban single starts remained relatively unchanged in August at 64,300 units, while multiple urban starts increased by 15.5% to 141,600 units.
Urban starts increased by 47.5% in Atlantic Canada, by 20.4% in Ontario, by 18.2% in B.C. and by 1.3% in the Prairies. Urban starts decreased by 9.8% in Quebec.
Within Ontario, multi-unit starts were up 33% year-over-year through August, while construction of single homes was down 1.4%.
Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 19,000 units in August, down from 21,200 units in July.
Through the first eight months of this year starts have averaged just under 218,000 units, ahead of the approximately 180,000 required by underlying demographic demand, BMO economist Robert Kavcic said in the Globe & Mail. But he suggested that the strong August numbers are a “look in the rear view mirror” because construction tends to lag sales by six to 12 months. The stricter mortgage insurance rules that took effect in July have had a cooling impact on sales, and that will ultimately filter through to a more moderate pace of construction and a gradual softening in housing starts through 2013, he said.
But Jacques Marcil, an economist at TD, suggested that a real slowdown will be dependent on a rise in interest rates.
“While recent changes to mortgage insurance rules will likely limit the growth in demand for new homes, low interest rates remain an incentive for buyers to borrow and keep the housing market overvalued,” Mr. Marcil told the G&M. “In the end, higher interest rates are needed to bring the Canadian housing market back to sustainable expansion pace. TD expects the Bank of Canada to make that move in the spring of 2013.”
New Mortgage Rules Will Cool Housing Market
The mortgage insurance rule changes that took effect in July will shave three percentage points off home prices and five percentage points off sales, TD Bank chief economist Craig Alexander said in a report released last week.
The Toronto and Vancouver housing markets have cooled recently in the wake of Ottawa’s latest move to stop a housing bubble, with many first-time buyers being knocked out of the market.
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty put the July 9 changes into effect to curb growing mortgage debt levels and take some steam out of house prices. Among other things, the new rules cut the maximum length of insured mortgages to 25 years from 30.
But in the report, TD says interest rate increases are also necessary to really tackle the imbalances that have developed in the Canadian housing market. Absent rate hikes, consumers still have a strong incentive to take out large mortgages, which help to fuel the overvaluation in prices.
Mr. Alexander studied the impact of prior mortgage insurance rule changes to model what the outcome of this latest round of changes might be.
By tempering sales and curbing refinancing activity, TD estimates that tighter mortgage rules have shaved two to three percentage points from household credit growth on average over the past five years. The impact has gone beyond just mortgages to include home equity secured lines of credit and other consumer borrowing.
“Our model suggests that had the government not tightened lending mortgage rules between 2008 and 2011, the Canadian household debt-to-income ratio would have reached 160% this year – the level that households in the U.S. and U.K. reached before sending their economies and housing markets into a tailspin,” Mr. Alexander wrote.
The latest changes by the department of finance, coupled with new guidelines from the country’s banking regulator, should reduce about one percentage point off credit growth, he says.
Meanwhile, in the absence of the changes, home sales would have vaulted to new record highs.
And although the mortgage insurance rule changes have curbed house sales and debt levels somewhat, the impact on prices has been relatively fleeting, Mr. Alexander said. TD Economics pegs the current overvaluation in the market at about 10 to 15%. As long as rates remain at rock-bottom levels, consumers will be tempted to continue taking on debt, and prices will remain elevated.
“At this stage, regulatory tightening has done its part,” Mr. Alexander said. “The next step in tempering domestic imbalances will have to come from the Bank of Canada. Interest rates simply cannot stay at current levels indefinitely.”
“We now expect the Bank of Canada to lift the overnight rate by 50 basis points in 2013 – only half the amount of rate hikes TD was expecting prior to the regulatory tightening, with further modest hikes in 2014.”
A gradual rise in bond yields over the next couple of years should also push mortgage rates higher. Along with the impact of the new rules and interest rate increases, Mr. Alexander expects a gradual housing sales and price correction on the order of 10%. That should allow the debt-to-income ratio to stabilize close to its current level of 152%.
However, the recent mortgage rule changes have sparked some debate in Canada. Some industry players and economists worry that the impact will be so widespread and long-lasting they want the government to consider rolling some of them back. But with prices that some still see as overvalued and new fears over consumer debt, others, like TD, say the changes are not enough and must be followed by a hike in rates.
The impact of the changes is predominately being felt by first-time home buyers because they are typically the ones who require mortgage insurance. Insurance is mandatory in Canada for borrowers who have a down payment of less than 20%, which has traditionally been about 35 to 40% of the market.
Traditionally, the banks have applied mortgage insurance rule changes to all mortgages – even those with large down payments that don’t require insurance. But that hasn’t been the case this time, Mr. Alexander noted.
“The banks are basically not applying the 25-year limit to the non-high-ratio-mortgages. That’s one of the reasons why the mortgage insurance rule changes had a more muted impact on the market, because really the segment that’s being significantly hit is the first-time buyers.”
“These are pretty dramatic changes, and I think they’re getting close to the tipping point,” said Brian Hurley, CEO of mortgage insurer Genworth Canada, in an interview in the Globe & Mail on the subject. “We see really qualified first-time home buyers with very high credit scores now not meeting the bar because they can’t afford a 25-year amortization. These people should be getting a home.”
Also, in the article, Eric Lascelles, RBC Global Asset Management chief economist said he approves of most of the rule changes, but said there is a risk that they are being overdone to compensate for ultra-low mortgage rates.
“I wonder if the drop from 30 to 25 years amortization might be regretted in a decade when interest rates have normalized and 25 year olds are told they cannot make mortgage payments past the age of 50, even though they expect to work until 65,” he added.
Building Permits Down 2.3% in July
Statistics Canada said last Friday that municipalities issued building permits worth just over $6.8 billion in July, down 2.3% from June but 4.5% higher than in July 2011.
The monthly decline was led by lower construction intentions for both residential and non-residential buildings, particularly in Ontario.
In the non-residential sector, the value of permits fell 2.1% to $2.5 billion after a 9.0% decrease in June. Year-over-year, non-residential permits were 8.2% lower in July. Non-residential permits declined in six provinces with Ontario and Saskatchewan accounting for most of the drop. Industrial permits declined 3.7% to $462 million; institutional permits decreased by 25.2% to $404 million; and commercial sector permits grew 6.4% to $1.7 billion.
In the residential sector, the value of permits decreased 2.4% to $4.3 billion in July, following two consecutive monthly advances. Year-over year, residential permits were 13.6% higher. July’s decline was attributable to mainly lower construction intentions in four provinces, led by Ontario, with Saskatchewan a distant second.
The value of permits for multi-family dwellings decreased 4.3% to $1.9 billion from June, following two consecutive monthly increases, but are up 21.8% from June 2011. The monthly drop was mainly due to lower construction intentions in Ontario, followed by Saskatchewan and Alberta. The value of multi-family permits increased in B.C., Nova Scotia and P.E.I.
Municipalities issued $2.5 billion worth of building permits for single-family dwellings in July, a 0.9% decline following two monthly advances, but up 8.1% from July 2011. Most of the declines occurred in B.C., Ontario and Saskatchewan. The value of permits for single-family houses rose in five provinces, including Alberta, Manitoba and Quebec.
Nationally, municipalities authorized construction of 19,139 new dwellings, down from 4.9% from June but 8.3% higher than a year ago. The decrease was attributable to both multi-family dwellings, which fell 6.8% to 11,846 units, and single-family dwellings, which declined 1.6% to 7,293 units.
Latest Jobs Growth Blows Past Expectations but Overall Trend Still Modest
Statistics Canada reported last Friday that Canada’s economy added a surprising 34,300 jobs in August, after a similar decline the previous month, however, most of the gains were in part-time positions.
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.3%, as more Canadians began looking for work.
Most economists had expected an increase in the range of 10,000 jobs, after a drop of 30,400 positions in July.
Canadian job creation has essentially stalled over the past four months after a strong spring, while the unemployment rate is unchanged from a year ago. And industries that tend to move in sync with economic cycles – construction and manufacturing – shed jobs last month.
“Taken in the context of hiring in the last few months, [Friday’s] employment data is consistent with the trend of economic growth of roughly 2% or so,” said Emanuella Enenajor, an economist at CIBC World Markets. “Although Canada’s hiring data was positive, the lack of momentum in construction activity adds caution to the overall pace of the domestic economy.”
In August, employers shed 12,500 full-time positions and added 46,700 part-time jobs. Overall, the private sector produced the bulk of the jobs gain (+29,900), while the public sector assed 17,400 positions. The number of self-employed Canadians fell by 13,000 during the month.
Most of the gains were in the service sector, where transportation and warehousing added 37,100 positions. The professional, scientific and technical services category saw an increase of 20,000 jobs, while building and other support services added 19,000 and natural resources 8,800 workers. The number of people working in retail and wholesale trade was up marginally from July.
The construction sector took the biggest hit in August, losing 44,000 jobs, and is now down 30,400 jobs over the last 12 months. Manufacturing shed 2,700 jobs in August but is up 24,300 positions from a year ago.
Young people are still struggling in the labour market. Canada’s youth jobless rate jumped to 14.8% in August from 14.3% in July. Employment among 15-24 year olds is down 72,000 from a year ago.
Older workers, meantime, landed jobs last month. The jobless rate for women over the age of 55 tumbled to 5.2% from 6.1%, while it stands at 5.9% for older men.
Among provinces, employment rose in Quebec, B.C., Saskatchewan and Manitoba. It declined in Ontario and P.E.I. and was little changed elsewhere. Among cities, Regina has the country’s lowest jobless rate, at 4.2%, and Windsor has the highest, at 9.2%.
On a year-over-year basis, employment is up by 1% or 176,600 jobs, with most of the gains occurring in the spring of this year. Full-time employment is up 172,200 positions while there are 4,300 more part-time jobs. Since August 2011, employment in the goods-producing sector has increased 1.6% (+62,200) and the services-producing sector 0.8% (+114,300). Public sector employment has increased by 1.9% (+67,800), and the number of private sector employees has risen 1% (+110,900), while self-employment is essentially unchanged (-2,100).
“Going forward, business desire to hire will be highly dependent on how the external environment unfolds,” TD Bank economist Francis Fong wrote in a note to clients. “The remainder of the year will likely look much the same from an employment perspective.”
In some other labour market news, the latest Manpower’s employment outlook survey released on Tuesday indicated that fourth quarter hiring expectations among Canadian employers has softened.
Hiring plans for the October-to-December period are weaker than for the prior quarter and down from the same period last year.
Still regional differences exist. Employers in Western Canada are by far the most optimistic, with robust demand for workers in construction and natural resources. Plans are modest in Atlantic Canada, while employers in Ontario grew reluctant to add to payrolls, particularly in manufacturing and construction.
According to the survey of about 1,900 Canadian companies, 16% of respondents plan to increase payrolls in the fourth quarter, while 7% see cutbacks. Three quarters expect to maintain current staffing levels while 2% were unsure of their hiring intentions.
All told, the seasonally-adjusted net hiring outlook for Canada was 10%, the weakest in almost two years.
Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported last Friday that the U.S. economy created a lower than expected 96,000 net new jobs in August, while the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 8.1% from 8.3%, but only because more Americans became discouraged and dropped out of the labour force.
U.S. economists had been predicting 125,000 new jobs for August.
Also, the July job increase number (non-farm payrolls) was revised downward from 163,000 to 141,000.
U.S. job creation last month was weak across the board, with manufacturing payrolls down 15,000, the first decline since September of last year.
The U.S. economy created an average of about 73,000 new jobs a month in the second quarter, down from an average of about 226,000 a month in the first quarter. The economy needs to create about 100,000 jobs a month simply to keep up with new entrants to the labour force.
